{ "ticker": { "uuid": "64d41a58-760d-417e-a9c7-d1aabac0c6a7", "symbol": "IDV", "name": "ISHARES INTERNATIONAL SELECT DIVIDEND ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.886, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.318, "architecture_energy": 74.912, "architecture_maturity": 6.52, "architecture_confidence": 68.677, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.52, "rotation_up": 76.42, "upward_expansion": 88.44, "deceleration": 45.23, "rotation_down": 11.3, "downward_expansion": 17.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.880667, 43.177857, 43.029527, 42.715962 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 44.61, "trend_reference": 42.22416, "distance_from_trend": 0.056504, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.528604, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.461253, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.57733, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.070673, "excess_performance": -0.054952, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056504, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045198, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.461253, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04806, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.005773, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04221, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.070673, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.472432, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3454357, "relative_activity": 0.729193, "balance": 1.472432, "dry_up": 0.776071, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023142, "annualized_volatility": 0.152939, "from_high_reference": -0.000896, "from_low_reference": 0.314081 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.22416, "fair_value_reference": 30.528604, "structural_low": 39.614784, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.014317, "positive_rate": 0.69697, "directional_follow_through": 0.69697, "median_excess_return": -0.009642, "regime_survival": 0.757576, "best_return": 0.081392, "worst_return": -0.073413, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.038001, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.028013, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.106257, "worst_return": -0.072645, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.017363, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.067033, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.20406, "worst_return": -0.124516, "sufficient": true }, { 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42.611333, 42.525085, 42.642786, 42.384953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.38, "volume": 3924171, "typical_volume": 4900901.5, "trend": 42.022482, "fair_value": 30.384599, "relative_strength": 3.688829, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.523811, "energy": 55.52958, "activity_lines": [ 43.308, 42.835542, 42.834995, 42.549025 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 44.61, "volume": 3454357, "typical_volume": 4737231.9, "trend": 42.22416, "fair_value": 30.528604, "relative_strength": 0.57733, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.318268, "energy": 74.912406, "activity_lines": [ 43.880667, 43.177857, 43.029527, 42.715962 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }