{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "64e0cdfe-76b1-4da5-acf4-923536366804",
    "symbol": "MOL",
    "name": "Moltiply Group S.p.A.",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 49.956,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 65.164,
    "architecture_energy": 32.218,
    "architecture_maturity": 28.873,
    "architecture_confidence": 45.414,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 38.4,
        "rotation_up": 46.38,
        "upward_expansion": 69.5,
        "deceleration": 66.08,
        "rotation_down": 23.45,
        "downward_expansion": 9.83
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        36.313334,
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        34.496859
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 38.900002,
    "trend_reference": 34.153441,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.138978,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 35.924853,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.082816,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -10.517257,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.129173,
    "excess_performance": -0.041719,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.138978,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.0198,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.082816,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.034998,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.105173,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.080308,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.129173,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.07109,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 188642,
      "relative_activity": 1.505713,
      "balance": 1.07109,
      "dry_up": 1.011668,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.084874,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.475631,
      "from_high_reference": -0.187891,
      "from_low_reference": 0.343696
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    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 34.153441,
      "fair_value_reference": 35.924853,
      "structural_low": 28.950001,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 18,
        "median_return": 0.002683,
        "positive_rate": 0.555556,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.555556,
        "median_excess_return": -0.033245,
        "regime_survival": 0.611111,
        "best_return": 0.209391,
        "worst_return": -0.160269,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
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        "sufficient": true
      },
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        "horizon": "Extended",
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        "worst_return": -0.228689,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "worst_return": -0.490282,
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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          34.662903
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "close": 34.150002,
        "volume": 92436,
        "typical_volume": 289199.15,
        "trend": 36.513333,
        "fair_value": 35.446252,
        "relative_strength": -24.065024,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -31.928699,
        "energy": 20.112759,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 278798.05,
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        "fair_value": 35.486469,
        "relative_strength": -24.673389,
        "stage": 4,
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        "energy": 21.972049,
        "activity_lines": [
          33.94,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "volume": 140647,
        "typical_volume": 270654.8,
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        "fair_value": 35.550058,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 31.049999,
        "volume": 243515,
        "typical_volume": 276703.4,
        "trend": 35.796666,
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        "relative_strength": -31.098223,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "energy": 18.207485,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 31.4,
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        "typical_volume": 286179.5,
        "trend": 35.366666,
        "fair_value": 35.590472,
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        "stage": 4,
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        "energy": 20.62852,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 31.35,
        "volume": 128901,
        "typical_volume": 262253.15,
        "trend": 34.843333,
        "fair_value": 35.595611,
        "relative_strength": -29.964414,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "volume": 29820,
        "typical_volume": 232215.85,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "stage": 1,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "stage": 1,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 11.812966,
        "energy": 19.262068,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 29898,
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        "fair_value": 35.742181,
        "relative_strength": -14.427888,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 36.400002,
        "volume": 112178,
        "typical_volume": 158501.15,
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        "fair_value": 35.781158,
        "relative_strength": -17.613267,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 59.6714,
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          36.458067,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 34.5,
        "volume": 71894,
        "typical_volume": 146659.7,
        "trend": 34.063441,
        "fair_value": 35.800946,
        "relative_strength": -19.982652,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 52.331236,
        "energy": 43.670673,
        "activity_lines": [
          35.902445,
          35.217891,
          34.406745,
          34.096342
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 33.0,
        "volume": 132529,
        "typical_volume": 145981.65,
        "trend": 33.996775,
        "fair_value": 35.809206,
        "relative_strength": -22.575528,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 27.236944,
        "energy": 17.89989,
        "activity_lines": [
          34.890976,
          34.988741,
          34.338634,
          34.027733
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 36.450001,
        "volume": 113919,
        "typical_volume": 141485.4,
        "trend": 34.081775,
        "fair_value": 35.848503,
        "relative_strength": -14.32503,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.764877,
        "energy": 18.758404,
        "activity_lines": [
          35.256667,
          35.351409,
          34.603381,
          34.186005
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 38.900002,
        "volume": 188642,
        "typical_volume": 125284.15,
        "trend": 34.153441,
        "fair_value": 35.924853,
        "relative_strength": -10.517257,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.163644,
        "energy": 32.218339,
        "activity_lines": [
          36.313334,
          36.067714,
          35.081937,
          34.496859
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}