{ "ticker": { "uuid": "64e4b22e-fb5b-46fb-b4d7-6f41e8806589", "symbol": "IBEXA", "name": "Amundi IBEX 35 Doble Apalancado Diario (2x) UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.956, "architecture_energy": 71.969, "architecture_maturity": 51.38, "architecture_confidence": 88.271, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.96, "rotation_up": 66.78, "upward_expansion": 86.39, "deceleration": 55.04, "rotation_down": 20.45, "downward_expansion": 13.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 82.99888, 81.489991, 77.083672, 73.985591 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 86.3088, "trend_reference": 70.752507, "distance_from_trend": 0.219869, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.828935, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.166987, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 17.013443, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.267195, "excess_performance": 0.142765, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.219869, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105684, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.166987, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.227312, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.170134, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053171, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.267195, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.419429, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58764, "relative_activity": 0.447943, "balance": 1.419429, "dry_up": 0.731656, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046295, "annualized_volatility": 0.36552, "from_high_reference": -0.01429, "from_low_reference": 0.905692 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 70.752507, "fair_value_reference": 39.828935, "structural_low": 55.200001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.019249, "positive_rate": 0.638889, "directional_follow_through": 0.638889, "median_excess_return": 0.008756, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.180508, "worst_return": -0.152561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.098409, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.053983, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.274017, "worst_return": -0.119498, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.193538, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.098307, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.320863, "worst_return": -0.155346, "sufficient": true }, { 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125629, "typical_volume": 145054.2, "trend": 69.447987, "fair_value": 38.977914, "relative_strength": 15.178309, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.265184, "energy": 78.394392, "activity_lines": [ 80.472521, 78.837369, 74.558927, 72.060672 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 83.043198, "volume": 119686, "typical_volume": 138667.4, "trend": 70.06776, "fair_value": 39.393712, "relative_strength": 15.519411, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.132758, "energy": 63.504822, "activity_lines": [ 81.307126, 80.000155, 75.718263, 72.937782 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 86.3088, "volume": 58764, "typical_volume": 131186.3, "trend": 70.752507, "fair_value": 39.828935, "relative_strength": 17.013443, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.956233, "energy": 71.969466, "activity_lines": [ 82.99888, 81.489991, 77.083672, 73.985591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }