{ "ticker": { "uuid": "64e6a3ef-1281-47f3-9a01-3b315f72ae47", "symbol": "300995", "name": "Guangdong Kitech New Material Holding Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.32, "architecture_energy": 60.521, "architecture_maturity": 36.311, "architecture_confidence": 78.654, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.78, "rotation_up": 13.67, "upward_expansion": 10.33, "deceleration": 47.64, "rotation_down": 68.83, "downward_expansion": 83.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.692, 26.007818, 29.225469, 31.133981 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 26.08, "trend_reference": 33.821084, "distance_from_trend": -0.228883, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.952313, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.032365, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -35.653529, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.311579, "excess_performance": -0.318979, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.228883, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102564, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.032365, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.434664, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.356535, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069413, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.311579, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.198533, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7430368, "relative_activity": 0.991304, "balance": 1.198533, "dry_up": 1.074609, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142609, "annualized_volatility": 0.452737, "from_high_reference": -0.607884, "from_low_reference": 0.244275 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.821084, "fair_value_reference": 26.952313, "structural_low": 20.959999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.015072, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.003801, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.281818, "worst_return": -0.246575, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.103801, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.116478, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.240997, "worst_return": -0.1329, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.064264, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.146026, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.185601, "worst_return": -0.231258, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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33.717302, 34.972463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 29.459999, "volume": 3062600, "typical_volume": 7209551.05, "trend": 36.170504, "fair_value": 26.801462, "relative_strength": -37.997056, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.700795, "energy": 79.343985, "activity_lines": [ 29.389999, 31.44509, 33.201738, 34.521905 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.58, "volume": 8556981, "typical_volume": 7386490.1, "trend": 35.791386, "fair_value": 26.847406, "relative_strength": -41.128181, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.251484, "energy": 82.787861, "activity_lines": [ 28.202666, 30.26309, 32.450625, 33.903162 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 24.16, "volume": 6338800, "typical_volume": 7424881.7, "trend": 35.265819, "fair_value": 26.873742, "relative_strength": -40.374923, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.63327, "energy": 86.188641, "activity_lines": [ 26.635333, 28.802727, 31.522911, 33.15275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.0, "volume": 10543773, "typical_volume": 7611634.35, "trend": 34.800922, "fair_value": 26.893461, "relative_strength": -42.574206, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.472543, "energy": 81.534707, "activity_lines": [ 25.146, 27.357454, 30.558283, 32.361407 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.02, "volume": 7906213, "typical_volume": 7450366.8, "trend": 34.324178, "fair_value": 26.913418, "relative_strength": -38.374012, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.887218, "energy": 77.35774, "activity_lines": [ 24.48, 26.366727, 29.764474, 31.665864 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.08, "volume": 7430368, "typical_volume": 7495552.55, "trend": 33.821084, "fair_value": 26.952313, "relative_strength": -35.653529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.320031, "energy": 60.521024, "activity_lines": [ 24.692, 26.007818, 29.225469, 31.133981 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }