{ "ticker": { "uuid": "64f00c99-f48f-4086-8a7d-05e967fa42e7", "symbol": "SPK", "name": "Spark New Zealand Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -42.901, "architecture_energy": 29.027, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.952, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.26, "rotation_up": 26.82, "upward_expansion": 15.82, "deceleration": 46.89, "rotation_down": 35.59, "downward_expansion": 65.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.901333, 1.885273, 1.923381, 1.971019 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.94, "trend_reference": 2.034983, "distance_from_trend": -0.046675, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.799476, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.307013, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.102556, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.102435, "excess_performance": -0.130709, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046675, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047655, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.307013, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012623, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.121026, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072644, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.102435, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.66039, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8541056, "relative_activity": 0.939602, "balance": 0.66039, "dry_up": 1.165734, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045301, "annualized_volatility": 0.188397, "from_high_reference": -0.210587, "from_low_reference": 0.071823 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.034983, "fair_value_reference": 2.799476, "structural_low": 1.81, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.011166, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.007116, "regime_survival": 0.884615, "best_return": 0.083933, "worst_return": -0.219932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.054545, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.051536, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.189448, "worst_return": -0.253279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.068817, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.103526, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.214018, "worst_return": -0.328754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 10208482.65, "trend": 2.044614, "fair_value": 2.812969, "relative_strength": -12.688251, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.364236, "energy": 39.472941, "activity_lines": [ 1.877333, 1.874909, 1.927048, 1.977769 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.94, "volume": 8541056, "typical_volume": 9090081.1, "trend": 2.034983, "fair_value": 2.799476, "relative_strength": -12.102556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.901336, "energy": 29.026774, "activity_lines": [ 1.901333, 1.885273, 1.923381, 1.971019 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }