{ "ticker": { "uuid": "64f38337-48b8-425f-bbdb-a58eceef420e", "symbol": "301306", "name": "Xi'an Xice Testing Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.275, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -33.96, "architecture_energy": 67.159, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 72.458, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.12, "rotation_up": 21.36, "upward_expansion": 27.95, "deceleration": 37.88, "rotation_down": 68.91, "downward_expansion": 60.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 95.566001, 119.092727, 133.665904, 135.126193 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 97.0, "trend_reference": 134.208667, "distance_from_trend": -0.277245, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 60.662628, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.599008, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.30083, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.079696, "excess_performance": -0.087096, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.277245, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.151021, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.599008, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.570222, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.093008, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.771651, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.079696, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.449425, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18865813, "relative_activity": 0.803446, "balance": 0.449425, "dry_up": 0.861227, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.268065, "annualized_volatility": 1.028511, "from_high_reference": -0.485411, "from_low_reference": 0.929964 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 134.208667, "fair_value_reference": 60.662628, "structural_low": 75.879997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.291456, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.109992, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.29933, "worst_return": 0.283582, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.215267, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.069905, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.435489, "worst_return": -0.004955, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.475954, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.142288, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.475954, "worst_return": 0.475954, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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56.666321, "energy": 60.968237, "activity_lines": [ 167.744667, 158.144726, 154.692333, 146.844731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 99.5, "volume": 22774444, "typical_volume": 25844421.9, "trend": 137.286334, "fair_value": 59.735581, "relative_strength": -2.055403, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.117233, "energy": 5.622283, "activity_lines": [ 146.415333, 148.130545, 150.162476, 144.451742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 85.029999, "volume": 22801298, "typical_volume": 25899581.0, "trend": 136.152334, "fair_value": 60.025898, "relative_strength": -16.984151, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.310496, "energy": 44.693032, "activity_lines": [ 122.638, 136.712181, 144.298571, 141.080365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 81.650002, "volume": 16448737, "typical_volume": 25372436.45, "trend": 134.787334, "fair_value": 60.288013, "relative_strength": -19.323129, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.657624, "energy": 64.608752, "activity_lines": [ 103.665334, 125.965818, 138.186571, 137.564086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 97.0, "volume": 18865813, "typical_volume": 23481115.7, "trend": 134.208667, "fair_value": 60.662628, "relative_strength": -9.30083, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.96041, "energy": 67.159202, "activity_lines": [ 95.566001, 119.092727, 133.665904, 135.126193 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }