{ "ticker": { "uuid": "64f57802-db35-437e-a6a8-bf80ad6b0079", "symbol": "300792", "name": "Hangzhou Onechance Tech Crop.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.617, "architecture_energy": 61.011, "architecture_maturity": 39.411, "architecture_confidence": 86.676, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.01, "rotation_up": 18.24, "upward_expansion": 10.74, "deceleration": 55.49, "rotation_down": 64.33, "downward_expansion": 84.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.892666, 24.804363, 27.95837, 30.363876 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.24, "trend_reference": 33.674368, "distance_from_trend": -0.250468, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.301975, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.002449, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.748504, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.406419, "excess_performance": -0.413819, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.250468, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025176, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.002449, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.435102, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.237485, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.197539, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.406419, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.011702, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58248187, "relative_activity": 2.098709, "balance": 1.011702, "dry_up": 1.475744, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130196, "annualized_volatility": 0.524881, "from_high_reference": -0.508915, "from_low_reference": 0.205349 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.674368, "fair_value_reference": 25.301975, "structural_low": 20.940001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.036132, "positive_rate": 0.392857, "directional_follow_through": 0.607143, "median_excess_return": 0.003099, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.330794, "worst_return": -0.220997, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.115267, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.036348, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.309887, "worst_return": -0.222092, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.119251, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000278, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.813537, "worst_return": -0.305331, "sufficient": true }, { 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"direction": -78.934004, "energy": 89.896886, "activity_lines": [ 26.312666, 28.564, 31.202067, 33.095824 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.389999, "volume": 37240051, "typical_volume": 26350686.55, "trend": 34.073055, "fair_value": 25.362471, "relative_strength": -30.381622, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.185954, "energy": 92.841145, "activity_lines": [ 24.736666, 27.074181, 30.170165, 32.33038 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.42, "volume": 29202378, "typical_volume": 25829967.85, "trend": 33.844787, "fair_value": 25.329201, "relative_strength": -33.330969, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.672195, "energy": 91.607464, "activity_lines": [ 23.288666, 25.662727, 29.139611, 31.514054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.549999, "volume": 39142285, "typical_volume": 26156730.15, "trend": 33.772979, "fair_value": 25.314355, "relative_strength": -22.211231, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.966876, "energy": 77.806496, "activity_lines": [ 23.448, 25.072363, 28.486483, 30.91439 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.24, "volume": 58248187, "typical_volume": 27754288.2, "trend": 33.674368, "fair_value": 25.301975, "relative_strength": -23.748504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.61718, "energy": 61.010781, "activity_lines": [ 23.892666, 24.804363, 27.95837, 30.363876 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }