{ "ticker": { "uuid": "64f7c02f-7261-45cd-b6c9-c289544fb21b", "symbol": "600611", "name": "Dazhong Transportation (Group) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -33.682, "architecture_energy": 18.773, "architecture_maturity": 67.905, "architecture_confidence": 81.886, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.52, "rotation_up": 27.86, "upward_expansion": 16.15, "deceleration": 44.07, "rotation_down": 29.39, "downward_expansion": 61.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.189333, 4.078923, 4.285449, 4.500146 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.55, "trend_reference": 4.849445, "distance_from_trend": -0.061748, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.234756, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.130809, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.815506, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.201754, "excess_performance": -0.158551, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061748, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096433, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.130809, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042795, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138155, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.128756, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.201754, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.173907, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 595728506, "relative_activity": 2.773502, "balance": 1.173907, "dry_up": 1.855182, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.152173, "annualized_volatility": 0.684602, "from_high_reference": -0.31457, "from_low_reference": 0.307008 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.849445, "fair_value_reference": 5.234756, "structural_low": 3.481233, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.003268, "positive_rate": 0.46875, "directional_follow_through": 0.53125, "median_excess_return": -0.009202, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.226415, "worst_return": -0.137584, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.02069, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.043639, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.064626, "worst_return": -0.148857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.006964, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009036, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.064626, "worst_return": -0.079208, "sufficient": true }, { 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.322928, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078431, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.084005, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.056188, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010169, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 3.98, "volume": 313390237, "typical_volume": 162318409.85, "trend": 4.980445, "fair_value": 5.211076, "relative_strength": -23.479086, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.066689, "energy": 62.848641, "activity_lines": [ 3.873603, 4.090378, 4.375687, 4.638038 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.98, "volume": 432888494, "typical_volume": 179435365.85, "trend": 4.927112, "fair_value": 5.217661, "relative_strength": -23.6713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.109548, "energy": 44.962381, "activity_lines": [ 3.893219, 4.025772, 4.316052, 4.573493 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.12, "volume": 251911892, "typical_volume": 188844128.05, "trend": 4.879778, "fair_value": 5.225018, "relative_strength": -20.4388, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.791737, "energy": 37.267384, "activity_lines": [ 3.981287, 3.994984, 4.277131, 4.521422 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.55, "volume": 595728506, "typical_volume": 214792862.3, "trend": 4.849445, "fair_value": 5.234756, "relative_strength": -13.815506, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.682286, "energy": 18.773444, "activity_lines": [ 4.189333, 4.078923, 4.285449, 4.500146 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }