{ "ticker": { "uuid": "64fe0d1c-aa5c-4956-8c71-5deae3b09665", "symbol": "TGRE", "name": "TD Active Global Real Estate Equity ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.084, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.61, "architecture_energy": 38.104, "architecture_maturity": 43.042, "architecture_confidence": 46.475, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.23, "rotation_up": 45.69, "upward_expansion": 73.2, "deceleration": 67.29, "rotation_down": 21.94, "downward_expansion": 4.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.81843, 15.792905, 15.657968, 15.512732 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 15.71, "trend_reference": 15.335032, "distance_from_trend": 0.024452, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.749788, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.142563, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.01132, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.053414, "excess_performance": -0.067008, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024452, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029436, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.142563, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024386, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070113, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015996, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.053414, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.384868, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13900, "relative_activity": 1.604155, "balance": 0.384868, "dry_up": 0.614541, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023411, "annualized_volatility": 0.151809, "from_high_reference": -0.037154, "from_low_reference": 0.110867 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.335032, "fair_value_reference": 13.749788, "structural_low": 14.29134, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.016244, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.010518, "regime_survival": 0.740741, "best_return": 0.060884, "worst_return": -0.056921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.005168, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.035072, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.079823, "worst_return": -0.045165, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.041364, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.04698, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.087112, "worst_return": -0.196604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04491, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086102, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006463, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013253, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024011, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": 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"activity_lines": [ 15.720914, 15.596665, 15.438217, 15.309839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.698636, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 11580.0, "trend": 15.135018, "fair_value": 13.641404, "relative_strength": -5.436956, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.719538, "energy": 53.715022, "activity_lines": [ 15.727838, 15.627656, 15.474703, 15.349444 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.848051, "volume": 3300, "typical_volume": 10685.0, "trend": 15.189606, "fair_value": 13.667854, "relative_strength": -4.147986, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.819619, "energy": 55.141797, "activity_lines": [ 15.769929, 15.68141, 15.524678, 15.395446 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.057236, "volume": 1600, "typical_volume": 9100.0, "trend": 15.250193, "fair_value": 13.695606, "relative_strength": -2.886185, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.466898, "energy": 57.44563, "activity_lines": [ 15.874416, 15.769327, 15.593464, 15.451422 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.79, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 8740.0, "trend": 15.299496, "fair_value": 13.723371, "relative_strength": -3.808075, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.778928, "energy": 42.795247, "activity_lines": [ 15.8546, 15.791691, 15.631589, 15.486248 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.71, "volume": 13900, "typical_volume": 8665.0, "trend": 15.335032, "fair_value": 13.749788, "relative_strength": -7.01132, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.609582, "energy": 38.103897, "activity_lines": [ 15.81843, 15.792905, 15.657968, 15.512732 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }