{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6503d932-76f9-4ee0-bace-f2a7870af2db", "symbol": "4230", "name": "Red Sea International Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.333, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 18.841, "architecture_energy": 20.103, "architecture_maturity": 9.013, "architecture_confidence": 46.743, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.92, "rotation_up": 44.0, "upward_expansion": 46.96, "deceleration": 35.18, "rotation_down": 26.13, "downward_expansion": 12.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.38, 24.194182, 23.886619, 23.648344 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.200001, "trend_reference": 23.897333, "distance_from_trend": 0.012665, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 35.784102, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.323722, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.133358, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.055425, "excess_performance": -0.023596, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012665, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144303, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.323722, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027244, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.201334, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076557, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.055425, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.128131, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5433687, "relative_activity": 0.972654, "balance": 1.128131, "dry_up": 1.471202, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092403, "annualized_volatility": 0.371906, "from_high_reference": -0.505921, "from_low_reference": 0.253886 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.897333, "fair_value_reference": 35.784102, "structural_low": 19.299999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.031128, "positive_rate": 0.315789, "directional_follow_through": 0.315789, "median_excess_return": -0.026476, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.06765, "worst_return": -0.212081, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.10229, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.120503, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.183868, "worst_return": -0.332406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.148829, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.159335, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.170859, "worst_return": -0.364238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.288797, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.295082, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.671292, "worst_return": -0.416777, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.020619, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085814, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.096654, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.700265, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.170079, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.133947, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.111628, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.14128, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.072746, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.340628, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035319, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.119565, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084027, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 24.700001, "volume": 161730, "typical_volume": 125529.95, "trend": 25.812, "fair_value": 39.296822, "relative_strength": -11.554165, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", 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14565506, "typical_volume": 4938694.75, "trend": 24.773, "fair_value": 35.809808, "relative_strength": -14.391119, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.908565, "energy": 24.658987, "activity_lines": [ 24.821333, 24.030909, 23.665, 23.720774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.82, "volume": 8305053, "typical_volume": 5222457.2, "trend": 24.450333, "fair_value": 35.803526, "relative_strength": -19.300371, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.3648, "energy": 27.14995, "activity_lines": [ 25.071333, 24.222363, 23.819476, 23.723806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.17, "volume": 4570958, "typical_volume": 5333829.2, "trend": 24.089333, "fair_value": 35.78859, "relative_strength": -22.396553, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.426747, "energy": 24.282543, "activity_lines": [ 24.588667, 24.111636, 23.807476, 23.641204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.200001, "volume": 5433687, "typical_volume": 5586451.9, "trend": 23.897333, "fair_value": 35.784102, "relative_strength": -20.133358, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.840612, "energy": 20.102669, "activity_lines": [ 24.38, 24.194182, 23.886619, 23.648344 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }