{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65041199-91e0-485c-8445-186a1fdf3cf9", "symbol": "U96", "name": "Sembcorp Industries Ltd", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.862, "architecture_energy": 83.741, "architecture_maturity": 8.24, "architecture_confidence": 86.057, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.65, "rotation_up": 8.33, "upward_expansion": 20.56, "deceleration": 37.02, "rotation_down": 76.63, "downward_expansion": 93.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.486, 5.682364, 5.949719, 6.031173 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.6, "trend_reference": 6.073735, "distance_from_trend": -0.077997, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.464363, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.024822, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.287271, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.0517, "excess_performance": -0.206535, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077997, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004999, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.024822, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155755, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.222873, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.141881, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.0517, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.549707, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27309800, "relative_activity": 1.002886, "balance": 0.549707, "dry_up": 1.408665, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.049863, "annualized_volatility": 0.273981, "from_high_reference": -0.203165, "from_low_reference": 0.072797 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.073735, "fair_value_reference": 5.464363, "structural_low": 5.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.007353, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.004077, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.145263, "worst_return": -0.058824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.102041, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.067994, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.179594, "worst_return": -0.072756, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.101089, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.021353, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.459184, "worst_return": 0.003055, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"fair_value": 5.459769, "relative_strength": -26.897893, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -56.257718, "energy": 80.427184, "activity_lines": [ 5.55, 5.827273, 6.067799, 6.099414 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.52, "volume": 40687397, "typical_volume": 27792417.3, "trend": 6.08196, "fair_value": 5.462707, "relative_strength": -23.079879, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.687082, "energy": 84.050091, "activity_lines": [ 5.473333, 5.741273, 6.004683, 6.062267 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.6, "volume": 27309800, "typical_volume": 27231212.3, "trend": 6.073735, "fair_value": 5.464363, "relative_strength": -22.287271, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.862238, "energy": 83.74146, "activity_lines": [ 5.486, 5.682364, 5.949719, 6.031173 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }