{ "ticker": { "uuid": "650771f0-8648-4996-abff-021db444cde2", "symbol": "D1VN34", "name": "Devon Energy Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 64.79, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -12.397, "architecture_energy": 11.004, "architecture_maturity": 8.493, "architecture_confidence": 66.289, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.03, "rotation_up": 36.56, "upward_expansion": 22.47, "deceleration": 41.7, "rotation_down": 24.9, "downward_expansion": 33.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 225.401334, 224.045141, 227.542815, 230.550298 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 222.5, "trend_reference": 230.505633, "distance_from_trend": -0.034731, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 213.936907, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.040026, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.54138, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.017624, "excess_performance": 0.039424, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034731, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047471, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.040026, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039217, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.015414, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030705, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.017624, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.53617, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14, "relative_activity": 0.075007, "balance": 0.53617, "dry_up": 0.328154, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043882, "annualized_volatility": 0.426886, "from_high_reference": -0.189435, "from_low_reference": 0.326228 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 230.505633, "fair_value_reference": 213.936907, "structural_low": 209.936447, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.000904, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.051569, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.065018, "worst_return": -0.148993, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.077086, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.118017, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.230435, "worst_return": -0.221741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.168104, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.233973, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.13307, "worst_return": -0.222856, "sufficient": 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231.338338 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 223.080002, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": 289.6, "trend": 226.955088, "fair_value": 214.127599, "relative_strength": -1.589243, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.575962, "energy": 48.388629, "activity_lines": [ 220.155332, 224.490059, 230.983416, 231.150299 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 223.960007, "volume": 110, "typical_volume": 293.15, "trend": 227.75929, "fair_value": 214.060134, "relative_strength": 1.23557, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.564323, "energy": 42.621088, "activity_lines": [ 220.733335, 223.7296, 229.900793, 230.957068 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 231.839996, "volume": 81, "typical_volume": 295.35, "trend": 228.887921, "fair_value": 214.046182, "relative_strength": 4.641464, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.81254, "energy": 14.558321, "activity_lines": [ 224.914667, 224.523861, 229.574677, 231.22034 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 225.5, "volume": 40, "typical_volume": 187.95, "trend": 229.497732, "fair_value": 213.99165, "relative_strength": -0.269532, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.318329, "energy": 8.323004, "activity_lines": [ 225.958667, 224.44012, 228.660175, 231.001764 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 222.5, "volume": 14, "typical_volume": 186.65, "trend": 230.505633, "fair_value": 213.936907, "relative_strength": 1.54138, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.397227, "energy": 11.004217, "activity_lines": [ 225.401334, 224.045141, 227.542815, 230.550298 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }