{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6509a5fa-7b02-4c5c-bb9c-ebf16c272558", "symbol": "605318", "name": "Fsilon Furnishing and Construction Materials Corporation", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.585, "architecture_energy": 38.299, "architecture_maturity": 7.692, "architecture_confidence": 49.341, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.17, "rotation_up": 14.11, "upward_expansion": 18.11, "deceleration": 59.81, "rotation_down": 67.89, "downward_expansion": 45.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 78.238669, 90.169455, 95.577619, 92.592666 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 80.300003, "trend_reference": 86.451333, "distance_from_trend": -0.071154, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.171793, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.219962, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 15.337591, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.288718, "excess_performance": 0.331922, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.071154, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.181169, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.219962, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.171869, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.153376, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.586381, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.288718, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.291097, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11273100, "relative_activity": 0.979996, "balance": 1.291097, "dry_up": 0.906209, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.220404, "annualized_volatility": 0.77162, "from_high_reference": -0.441974, "from_low_reference": 1.981805 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 86.451333, "fair_value_reference": 36.171793, "structural_low": 60.360001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.114855, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.050255, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.145172, "worst_return": 0.067653, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.038487, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.052025, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.20179, "worst_return": -0.042988, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.023092, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.002263, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.223669, "worst_return": -0.002701, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.217451, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.096273, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.387829, "worst_return": 0.047073, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-01-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010579, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-01-19", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.173531, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.031922, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.080623, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028976, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.321518, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.119544, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130552, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.198683, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-12-05", 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94.248902 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 90.779999, "volume": 9756000, "typical_volume": 11673069.25, "trend": 84.535333, "fair_value": 34.545806, "relative_strength": 35.856715, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.024584, "energy": 38.401446, "activity_lines": [ 110.008664, 109.300725, 102.306237, 94.734451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 76.660004, "volume": 10769000, "typical_volume": 11610842.75, "trend": 85.414, "fair_value": 34.951032, "relative_strength": 20.032893, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.398386, "energy": 15.475355, "activity_lines": [ 96.524667, 103.917272, 100.591856, 94.226365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 78.220001, "volume": 11923825, "typical_volume": 11659375.7, "trend": 85.811333, "fair_value": 35.364329, "relative_strength": 19.112181, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.987392, "energy": 25.275416, "activity_lines": [ 87.117334, 99.218727, 99.036714, 93.762236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 73.330002, "volume": 7731324, "typical_volume": 11497171.9, "trend": 85.947, "fair_value": 35.746095, "relative_strength": 9.80179, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.696326, "energy": 40.532105, "activity_lines": [ 79.671335, 93.827091, 96.974857, 92.956989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 80.300003, "volume": 11273100, "typical_volume": 11503206.9, "trend": 86.451333, "fair_value": 36.171793, "relative_strength": 15.337591, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.585182, "energy": 38.298606, "activity_lines": [ 78.238669, 90.169455, 95.577619, 92.592666 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }