{ "ticker": { "uuid": "650a885d-35e8-4a74-aad2-f0db44256b17", "symbol": "603041", "name": "Jiangsu Maysta Chemical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.86, "architecture_energy": 56.855, "architecture_maturity": 33.499, "architecture_confidence": 88.945, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.85, "rotation_up": 18.15, "upward_expansion": 9.29, "deceleration": 56.43, "rotation_down": 65.69, "downward_expansion": 84.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.211333, 10.417058, 11.325404, 11.803333 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 10.67, "trend_reference": 12.30615, "distance_from_trend": -0.132954, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.517424, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.073578, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.421713, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.187357, "excess_performance": -0.144153, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.132954, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043937, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.073578, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.286368, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134217, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151596, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.187357, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.431497, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12357890, "relative_activity": 0.991441, "balance": 0.431497, "dry_up": 1.059865, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087623, "annualized_volatility": 0.353097, "from_high_reference": -0.34298, "from_low_reference": 0.156013 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.30615, "fair_value_reference": 11.517424, "structural_low": 9.23, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.028263, "positive_rate": 0.705882, "directional_follow_through": 0.294118, "median_excess_return": 0.019102, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.178711, "worst_return": -0.09619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.10237, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.011555, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.21722, "worst_return": -0.016, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.071369, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.040528, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.202992, "worst_return": -0.095434, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.569394, "energy": 87.581763, "activity_lines": [ 10.716296, 11.389748, 12.141299, 12.400038 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.38, "volume": 14421655, "typical_volume": 13003366.25, "trend": 12.50815, "fair_value": 11.551487, "relative_strength": -13.334624, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.740839, "energy": 84.494899, "activity_lines": [ 10.545333, 11.080526, 11.934325, 12.260179 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.49, "volume": 15988680, "typical_volume": 12905324.0, "trend": 12.420817, "fair_value": 11.536872, "relative_strength": -21.26571, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.807979, "energy": 84.682257, "activity_lines": [ 10.16, 10.67474, 11.658399, 12.06546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.04, "volume": 10074840, "typical_volume": 12748790.4, "trend": 12.35215, "fair_value": 11.525036, "relative_strength": -16.658423, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.542968, "energy": 73.244945, "activity_lines": [ 10.065333, 10.454707, 11.453521, 11.911859 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.67, "volume": 12357890, "typical_volume": 12464579.95, "trend": 12.30615, "fair_value": 11.517424, "relative_strength": -13.421713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.860329, "energy": 56.855093, "activity_lines": [ 10.211333, 10.417058, 11.325404, 11.803333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }