{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65115c56-2bd7-45da-8072-684f3486b3e8", "symbol": "002840", "name": "Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.19, "architecture_energy": 47.62, "architecture_maturity": 39.796, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.31, "rotation_up": 26.82, "upward_expansion": 8.01, "deceleration": 53.02, "rotation_down": 43.59, "downward_expansion": 76.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.714667, 7.732545, 8.684762, 9.275634 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 8.11, "trend_reference": 9.759333, "distance_from_trend": -0.169001, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.174231, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.384404, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.679754, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.18981, "excess_performance": -0.19721, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.169001, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073921, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.384404, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.304332, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.226798, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.191037, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.18981, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.258846, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110902651, "relative_activity": 0.824814, "balance": 0.258846, "dry_up": 0.810386, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130987, "annualized_volatility": 0.520781, "from_high_reference": -0.426044, "from_low_reference": 0.170274 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.759333, "fair_value_reference": 13.174231, "structural_low": 6.93, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": 0.024263, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.008948, "regime_survival": 0.730769, "best_return": 0.391153, "worst_return": -0.184466, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.004369, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.011558, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.414134, "worst_return": -0.240924, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.043935, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.171014, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.030612, "worst_return": -0.256766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049302, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075278, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.139834, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026832, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.193662, "active": false }, { 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"volume": 123194696, "typical_volume": 129845507.8, "trend": 10.011, "fair_value": 13.412885, "relative_strength": -31.797109, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.89846, "energy": 68.740632, "activity_lines": [ 7.818667, 8.268545, 9.587952, 9.862925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.66, "volume": 130498953, "typical_volume": 133598486.55, "trend": 9.954667, "fair_value": 13.361731, "relative_strength": -26.148982, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.202652, "energy": 65.237102, "activity_lines": [ 7.744, 8.027091, 9.34681, 9.711247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.08, "volume": 111248617, "typical_volume": 135123569.85, "trend": 9.867667, "fair_value": 13.300705, "relative_strength": -31.292799, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.821342, "energy": 68.094707, "activity_lines": [ 7.516, 7.772364, 9.061524, 9.525785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.69, "volume": 83200567, "typical_volume": 135838752.05, "trend": 9.809667, "fair_value": 13.239551, "relative_strength": -23.505811, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.520756, "energy": 60.510334, "activity_lines": [ 7.558, 7.695273, 8.847762, 9.38529 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.11, "volume": 110902651, "typical_volume": 134457709.75, "trend": 9.759333, "fair_value": 13.174231, "relative_strength": -22.679754, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.190443, "energy": 47.619779, "activity_lines": [ 7.714667, 7.732545, 8.684762, 9.275634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }