{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65152e31-7e0c-4554-8c24-c62a2a2126a0", "symbol": "6827", "name": "MegaPro Biomedical Co., Ltd", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.831, "architecture_energy": 69.601, "architecture_maturity": 16.648, "architecture_confidence": 84.512, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.06, "rotation_up": 9.34, "upward_expansion": 15.32, "deceleration": 37.31, "rotation_down": 76.79, "downward_expansion": 93.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.242667, 10.772545, 11.469857, 11.556925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 10.15, "trend_reference": 11.708333, "distance_from_trend": -0.133096, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.427341, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.417582, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.281377, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.161157, "excess_performance": -0.602529, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.133096, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062558, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.417582, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037207, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.472814, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030403, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.161157, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.64167, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 208548, "relative_activity": 0.26525, "balance": 0.64167, "dry_up": 0.468262, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.118075, "annualized_volatility": 0.520367, "from_high_reference": -0.468586, "from_low_reference": 0.071806 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.708333, "fair_value_reference": 17.427341, "structural_low": 9.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.029653, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.056699, "regime_survival": 0.863636, "best_return": 0.645, "worst_return": -0.322344, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.128564, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.168548, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.566191, "worst_return": -0.264706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.10367, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.384689, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.051546, "worst_return": -0.364629, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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11.963636, 12.039476, 11.976215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.65, "volume": 416452, "typical_volume": 782135.25, "trend": 11.943, "fair_value": 17.798706, "relative_strength": -45.003687, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.4256, "energy": 52.145386, "activity_lines": [ 11.116667, 11.676364, 11.926667, 11.88914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.35, "volume": 492971, "typical_volume": 789994.85, "trend": 11.883, "fair_value": 17.671041, "relative_strength": -45.095843, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.755373, "energy": 62.500075, "activity_lines": [ 10.756667, 11.351818, 11.789333, 11.786366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.96, "volume": 354682, "typical_volume": 795715.15, "trend": 11.783333, "fair_value": 17.546618, "relative_strength": -47.638723, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.689071, "energy": 73.077762, "activity_lines": [ 10.396667, 11.02, 11.617238, 11.662301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 10.15, "volume": 208548, "typical_volume": 786233.05, "trend": 11.708333, "fair_value": 17.427341, "relative_strength": -47.281377, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.830601, "energy": 69.601425, "activity_lines": [ 10.242667, 10.772545, 11.469857, 11.556925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }