{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6515b56b-ba12-4287-a10c-0f166f90ab52", "symbol": "4335", "name": "Musharaka REIT Fund", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -87.502, "architecture_energy": 95.453, "architecture_maturity": 24.994, "architecture_confidence": 77.859, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 8.02, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 88.85, "downward_expansion": 100.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.552, 3.697455, 3.85038, 3.932261 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 3.47, "trend_reference": 4.022819, "distance_from_trend": -0.137421, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.458455, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.221703, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.481349, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.173484, "excess_performance": -0.141655, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.137421, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021837, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.221703, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098686, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134813, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134217, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173484, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.216961, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 664450, "relative_activity": 1.632193, "balance": 0.216961, "dry_up": 1.545368, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029262, "annualized_volatility": 0.143969, "from_high_reference": -0.215448, "from_low_reference": 0.020588 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.022819, "fair_value_reference": 4.458455, "structural_low": 3.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.010657, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.005513, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.048271, "worst_return": -0.097778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.027276, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.006394, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.066845, "worst_return": -0.133219, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.043789, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.084631, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.007528, "worst_return": -0.250127, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006977, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037559, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002427, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03632, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007009, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -95.25389, "energy": 97.489155, "activity_lines": [ 3.767333, 3.857091, 3.957528, 4.010554 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.42, "volume": 929281, "typical_volume": 378543.9, "trend": 4.041564, "fair_value": 4.479462, "relative_strength": -12.920187, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -98.227493, "energy": 99.109878, "activity_lines": [ 3.632667, 3.767455, 3.899906, 3.969136 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.47, "volume": 664450, "typical_volume": 407090.3, "trend": 4.022819, "fair_value": 4.458455, "relative_strength": -13.481349, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -87.502479, "energy": 95.453026, "activity_lines": [ 3.552, 3.697455, 3.85038, 3.932261 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }