{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65167abd-2850-4e2d-95ec-384e1bd9bf6a", "symbol": "VIE", "name": "Veolia Environnement SA", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 64.701, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.34, "architecture_energy": 33.142, "architecture_maturity": 91.022, "architecture_confidence": 71.07, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.8, "rotation_up": 33.54, "upward_expansion": 64.88, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 27.62, "downward_expansion": 17.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.767333, 36.071455, 35.543423, 34.749688 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 35.25, "trend_reference": 33.562802, "distance_from_trend": 0.05027, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.051564, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.256614, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.305992, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.14359, "excess_performance": -0.030656, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05027, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085341, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.256614, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006999, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07306, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057346, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.14359, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.131579, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20, "relative_activity": 0.495663, "balance": 0.131579, "dry_up": 0.892193, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030464, "annualized_volatility": 0.245109, "from_high_reference": -0.072368, "from_low_reference": 0.334396 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.562802, "fair_value_reference": 28.051564, "structural_low": 28.945981, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.009636, "positive_rate": 0.515152, "directional_follow_through": 0.515152, "median_excess_return": -0.008241, "regime_survival": 0.69697, "best_return": 0.11192, "worst_return": -0.085032, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.026201, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.04571, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.126812, "worst_return": -0.189231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.045694, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.053936, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.259077, "worst_return": -0.224759, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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34.244893, 33.349231 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 37.540001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 61.25, "trend": 32.2898, "fair_value": 27.726456, "relative_strength": -1.333498, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 92.353578, "energy": 95.722011, "activity_lines": [ 36.361334, 35.661168, 34.629618, 33.708002 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 36.299999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 52.75, "trend": 32.565595, "fair_value": 27.789196, "relative_strength": -3.084332, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.825938, "energy": 86.912006, "activity_lines": [ 36.474667, 35.865455, 34.868692, 33.966724 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 37.369999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 52.75, "trend": 32.874821, "fair_value": 27.861102, "relative_strength": 1.856325, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.015663, "energy": 90.608705, "activity_lines": [ 36.846, 36.227091, 35.193496, 34.276686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.700001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 52.15, "trend": 33.16363, "fair_value": 27.929108, "relative_strength": -1.138042, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.937897, "energy": 66.708011, "activity_lines": [ 36.868667, 36.412, 35.439425, 34.523471 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.779999, "volume": 124, "typical_volume": 58.35, "trend": 33.360014, "fair_value": 27.985031, "relative_strength": -6.038595, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.202689, "energy": 44.970871, "activity_lines": [ 36.196666, 36.199818, 35.47593, 34.627753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.25, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": 40.35, "trend": 33.562802, "fair_value": 28.051564, "relative_strength": -7.305992, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.340059, "energy": 33.14227, "activity_lines": [ 35.767333, 36.071455, 35.543423, 34.749688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }