{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65224e42-8d9a-457a-b4cc-6fe3c2ee69a9", "symbol": "GROC", "name": "GreenRoc Strategic Materials Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.283, "architecture_energy": 76.981, "architecture_maturity": 27.759, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.98, "rotation_up": 20.43, "upward_expansion": 19.02, "deceleration": 37.29, "rotation_down": 63.87, "downward_expansion": 94.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0288, 0.029942, 0.033756, 0.036149 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.028, "trend_reference": 0.03795, "distance_from_trend": -0.262187, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.025542, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.096248, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.461538, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.23913, "excess_performance": -0.290366, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.262187, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031063, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.096248, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.453038, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.204615, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.478037, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.23913, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.081813, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 571339, "relative_activity": 0.162988, "balance": 0.081813, "dry_up": 0.286417, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148324, "annualized_volatility": 0.685332, "from_high_reference": -0.525424, "from_low_reference": 0.473684 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.03795, "fair_value_reference": 0.025542, "structural_low": 0.026, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.036282, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.032887, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 1.44898, "worst_return": -0.341772, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.167252, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.136428, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.959184, "worst_return": -0.536709, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.033851, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024593, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.959184, "worst_return": -0.481013, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.304348, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035714, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020833, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.266667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019231, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.196078, "active": 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0.037668, 0.038464 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0305, "volume": 1261769, "typical_volume": 3997695.35, "trend": 0.037967, "fair_value": 0.02576, "relative_strength": -10.710416, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.233044, "energy": 45.462091, "activity_lines": [ 0.031333, 0.03214, 0.036745, 0.037991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0295, "volume": 819599, "typical_volume": 3787080.6, "trend": 0.03805, "fair_value": 0.025689, "relative_strength": -14.81727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.067452, "energy": 57.38705, "activity_lines": [ 0.030667, 0.031416, 0.035781, 0.037445 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.028, "volume": 1363308, "typical_volume": 3717115.3, "trend": 0.038033, "fair_value": 0.025625, "relative_strength": -20.096423, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.112202, "energy": 68.057937, "activity_lines": [ 0.029567, 0.030584, 0.034743, 0.036796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.028, "volume": 571339, "typical_volume": 3505394.85, "trend": 0.03795, "fair_value": 0.025542, "relative_strength": -20.461538, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.283217, "energy": 76.980655, "activity_lines": [ 0.0288, 0.029942, 0.033756, 0.036149 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }