{ "ticker": { "uuid": "652286cb-98de-4fc9-a477-08596591f1de", "symbol": "PMI", "name": "Premier Miton Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.823, "architecture_energy": 25.232, "architecture_maturity": 20.169, "architecture_confidence": 66.632, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.86, "rotation_up": 21.1, "upward_expansion": 15.15, "deceleration": 59.7, "rotation_down": 45.22, "downward_expansion": 62.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.375667, 0.378754, 0.374832, 0.384096 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.375, "trend_reference": 0.400695, "distance_from_trend": -0.064126, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.496312, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.244427, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.359519, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.171441, "excess_performance": -0.222676, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.064126, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096738, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.244427, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065749, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.253595, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.10156, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.171441, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.346146, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1092835, "relative_activity": 0.624388, "balance": 0.346146, "dry_up": 0.781229, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058051, "annualized_volatility": 0.314916, "from_high_reference": -0.396307, "from_low_reference": 0.127782 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.400695, "fair_value_reference": 0.496312, "structural_low": 0.332511, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.050001, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.052746, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.243902, "worst_return": -0.136232, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.136109, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.152504, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.205033, "worst_return": -0.223188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.001188, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.035166, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.138397, "worst_return": -0.297446, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.06249, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.265906, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.061844, "worst_return": -0.230473, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.138211, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034248, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0512, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122302, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.034188, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08547, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.161165, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.136753, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-01", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.086762, "energy": 20.339562, "activity_lines": [ 0.38663, 0.377877, 0.37773, 0.391008 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.3725, "volume": 682722, "typical_volume": 1845487.4, "trend": 0.410103, "fair_value": 0.498751, "relative_strength": -26.627344, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.239607, "energy": 19.381605, "activity_lines": [ 0.382593, 0.378205, 0.376304, 0.388351 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.375, "volume": 1016232, "typical_volume": 1787700.6, "trend": 0.405856, "fair_value": 0.497519, "relative_strength": -26.100577, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.4611, "energy": 16.647018, "activity_lines": [ 0.379272, 0.378694, 0.375452, 0.386087 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.375, "volume": 1092835, "typical_volume": 1750249.3, "trend": 0.400695, "fair_value": 0.496312, "relative_strength": -25.359519, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.822595, "energy": 25.231638, "activity_lines": [ 0.375667, 0.378754, 0.374832, 0.384096 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }