{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65238007-3a5b-4b71-8cd1-4470935a37f9", "symbol": "ABCB4", "name": "Banco ABC Brasil S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 72.446, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.842, "architecture_energy": 29.471, "architecture_maturity": 31.384, "architecture_confidence": 74.81, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.78, "rotation_up": 25.46, "upward_expansion": 9.51, "deceleration": 53.2, "rotation_down": 43.1, "downward_expansion": 69.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.790667, 23.82025, 23.833451, 24.275016 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.530001, "trend_reference": 24.865025, "distance_from_trend": -0.053691, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.113118, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.169883, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.604015, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.127225, "excess_performance": -0.070177, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.053691, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011067, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.169883, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030399, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.03604, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084996, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.127225, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.163634, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2680600, "relative_activity": 1.123023, "balance": 1.163634, "dry_up": 0.938708, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041874, "annualized_volatility": 0.231417, "from_high_reference": -0.178709, "from_low_reference": 0.186347 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.865025, "fair_value_reference": 20.113118, "structural_low": 22.244259, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.008411, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.008938, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.146991, "worst_return": -0.088962, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.073603, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.042769, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.161822, "worst_return": -0.063701, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.033236, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.040358, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.060764, "worst_return": 0.023393, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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23.245824, 23.3859, 24.308914, 24.671845 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 24.027998, "volume": 679700, "typical_volume": 2649215.0, "trend": 24.751959, "fair_value": 19.760269, "relative_strength": -2.794685, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.902586, "energy": 33.480448, "activity_lines": [ 23.508456, 23.422941, 24.20771, 24.627432 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 23.790001, "volume": 247400, "typical_volume": 2467800.0, "trend": 24.782715, "fair_value": 19.820092, "relative_strength": -4.201703, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.361609, "energy": 26.619093, "activity_lines": [ 23.640247, 23.465473, 24.097802, 24.56537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 24.940001, "volume": 3319900, "typical_volume": 2564400.0, "trend": 24.837718, "fair_value": 19.889279, "relative_strength": -1.544343, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.400126, "energy": 18.308289, "activity_lines": [ 24.12736, 23.744187, 24.11237, 24.575517 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.51, "volume": 2546900, "typical_volume": 2560805.0, "trend": 24.866341, "fair_value": 19.945007, "relative_strength": -4.828484, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.062362, "energy": 22.875089, "activity_lines": [ 23.990522, 23.744064, 24.004795, 24.489858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.75, "volume": 1814200, "typical_volume": 2522610.0, "trend": 24.866025, "fair_value": 20.003143, "relative_strength": -3.928679, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.4339, "energy": 19.670122, "activity_lines": [ 23.947867, 23.781734, 23.937316, 24.417836 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.0, "volume": 1920900, "typical_volume": 2462015.0, "trend": 24.877691, "fair_value": 20.057261, "relative_strength": -4.872354, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.413083, "energy": 17.797627, "activity_lines": [ 23.946667, 23.850488, 23.903645, 24.361963 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.530001, "volume": 2680600, "typical_volume": 2386950.0, "trend": 24.865025, "fair_value": 20.113118, "relative_strength": -3.604015, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.841762, "energy": 29.47099, "activity_lines": [ 23.790667, 23.82025, 23.833451, 24.275016 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }