{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "65249114-78bd-49eb-8421-43cea53fc6f7",
    "symbol": "BLKB",
    "name": "Blackbaud Inc",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": 47.426,
    "architecture_energy": 49.6,
    "architecture_maturity": 31.178,
    "architecture_confidence": 73.586,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 30.24,
        "rotation_up": 69.48,
        "upward_expansion": 37.39,
        "deceleration": 44.93,
        "rotation_down": 14.01,
        "downward_expansion": 23.72
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        39.538,
        35.318545,
        33.659762,
        35.428043
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 45.87,
    "trend_reference": 39.147333,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.171727,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 65.92875,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.304249,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -20.135837,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.033909,
    "excess_performance": -0.221363,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.171727,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.193476,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.304249,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.154948,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.201358,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.257849,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.033909,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.023517,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3189667,
      "relative_activity": 0.879909,
      "balance": 1.023517,
      "dry_up": 1.044003,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.096785,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.637094,
      "from_high_reference": -0.351294,
      "from_low_reference": 0.793198
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 39.147333,
      "fair_value_reference": 65.92875,
      "structural_low": 25.58,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.008365,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.034708,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.061701,
        "worst_return": -0.045512,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.026162,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.028724,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.030888,
        "worst_return": 0.021436,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.174636,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.02765,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.252701,
        "worst_return": 0.096571,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.030764,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.210925,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.291042,
        "worst_return": -0.229513,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-06-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.039334,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-06-21",
        "end": "2024-08-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.104213,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-09-06",
        "end": "2024-12-06",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.018903,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-12-13",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.044991,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.024862,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.147764,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-09-05",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.046676,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-09-12",
        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.094253,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-11-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.095125,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-11-14",
        "end": "2025-11-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.078166,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-11-28",
        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.128592,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-12-26",
        "end": "2026-01-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.13596,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-01-23",
        "end": "2026-07-24",
        "tenure": "Extended",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.071729,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 922028.8,
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      },
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        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      },
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 3061535,
        "typical_volume": 3402389.5,
        "trend": 41.299333,
        "fair_value": 66.565801,
        "relative_strength": -43.695107,
        "stage": 4,
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        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 37.751092,
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          30.408667,
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          31.850905,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 32.71,
        "volume": 3065929,
        "typical_volume": 3426890.3,
        "trend": 40.249333,
        "fair_value": 66.299904,
        "relative_strength": -41.305518,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -39.283412,
        "energy": 27.416997,
        "activity_lines": [
          31.422,
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          31.664762,
          34.864903
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 42.8,
        "volume": 5820888,
        "typical_volume": 3601171.8,
        "trend": 39.692,
        "fair_value": 66.102788,
        "relative_strength": -22.594859,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 16.786594,
        "energy": 24.056699,
        "activity_lines": [
          35.420667,
          32.628727,
          32.513143,
          35.029462
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 45.87,
        "volume": 3189667,
        "typical_volume": 3624995.35,
        "trend": 39.147333,
        "fair_value": 65.92875,
        "relative_strength": -20.135837,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 47.425871,
        "energy": 49.599837,
        "activity_lines": [
          39.538,
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          33.659762,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}