{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6525c476-fc56-486d-a647-05320d594bdf", "symbol": "GT", "name": "Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -16.056, "architecture_energy": 15.526, "architecture_maturity": 28.523, "architecture_confidence": 75.792, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.03, "rotation_up": 33.68, "upward_expansion": 32.06, "deceleration": 44.96, "rotation_down": 23.58, "downward_expansion": 42.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.868, 6.798364, 6.618738, 6.772677 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.44, "trend_reference": 7.2555, "distance_from_trend": -0.112397, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.935673, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.351831, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.906919, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.388994, "excess_performance": -0.576448, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.112397, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078686, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.351831, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032138, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.269069, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114331, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.388994, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.767858, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50309287, "relative_activity": 1.136725, "balance": 0.767858, "dry_up": 0.992688, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111693, "annualized_volatility": 0.493917, "from_high_reference": -0.393597, "from_low_reference": 0.186004 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.2555, "fair_value_reference": 9.935673, "structural_low": 5.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.023111, "positive_rate": 0.529412, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": 0.001826, "regime_survival": 0.470588, "best_return": 0.345829, "worst_return": -0.174643, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.027806, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.031317, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.17251, "worst_return": -0.230428, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.020722, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.186876, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.221782, "worst_return": -0.341313, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.248625, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.274853, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.096889, "worst_return": -0.373957, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.106076, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.151575, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.236158, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069936, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043843, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.216495, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001178, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.034078, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.188275, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.126059, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.154472, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.032578, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.106796, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.66, "volume": 13513692, "typical_volume": 23899618.95, "trend": 12.429, "fair_value": 14.107885, "relative_strength": -9.03039, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": 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6.877677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.21, "volume": 40402355, "typical_volume": 45038765.75, "trend": 7.414167, "fair_value": 10.015224, "relative_strength": -15.380591, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 0.243139, "energy": 17.210876, "activity_lines": [ 7.044, 6.747818, 6.596643, 6.861237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.95, "volume": 36024239, "typical_volume": 44335356.55, "trend": 7.3485, "fair_value": 9.977532, "relative_strength": -17.839676, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.954314, "energy": 18.047536, "activity_lines": [ 7.044667, 6.829091, 6.632381, 6.83129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.44, "volume": 50309287, "typical_volume": 44258104.5, "trend": 7.2555, "fair_value": 9.935673, "relative_strength": -26.906919, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.056153, "energy": 15.526422, "activity_lines": [ 6.868, 6.798364, 6.618738, 6.772677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }