{ "ticker": { "uuid": "652617ca-4478-4615-b6a0-89486d21e35c", "symbol": "VGSH", "name": "VANGUARD SHORT-TERM TREASURY INDEX FUND ETF SHARES", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 94.322, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -16.435, "architecture_energy": 7.867, "architecture_maturity": 29.72, "architecture_confidence": 71.072, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 67.77, "rotation_up": 23.89, "upward_expansion": 18.12, "deceleration": 35.6, "rotation_down": 31.36, "downward_expansion": 56.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.952605, 57.94325, 57.949192, 57.967575 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 58.07, "trend_reference": 57.983664, "distance_from_trend": 0.001489, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 55.335564, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.049416, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.24474, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.000649, "excess_performance": -0.186804, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001489, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0015, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.049416, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008739, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122447, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039144, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.000649, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.513078, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15318081, "relative_activity": 0.890103, "balance": 1.513078, "dry_up": 0.778922, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.002906, "annualized_volatility": 0.015252, "from_high_reference": -0.00376, "from_low_reference": 0.023003 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.983664, "fair_value_reference": 55.335564, "structural_low": 57.764057, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.001454, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.009032, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.003664, "worst_return": -0.002691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.003708, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.044629, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.011484, "worst_return": -0.004069, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.007467, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.074793, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.025638, "worst_return": -0.010704, 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advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.348825, "energy": 9.266873, "activity_lines": [ 57.930046, 57.934545, 57.954755, 57.973825 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 57.838083, "volume": 11662899, "typical_volume": 17711467.3, "trend": 57.973705, "fair_value": 55.252214, "relative_strength": -8.363397, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.428567, "energy": 39.128198, "activity_lines": [ 57.894878, 57.919153, 57.942008, 57.965114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.917833, "volume": 11346743, "typical_volume": 17455052.55, "trend": 57.975984, "fair_value": 55.293258, "relative_strength": -8.380106, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.571334, "energy": 34.993192, "activity_lines": [ 57.893243, 57.917908, 57.938201, 57.96151 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 58.07, "volume": 15318081, "typical_volume": 17209327.2, "trend": 57.983664, "fair_value": 55.335564, "relative_strength": -12.24474, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.43495, "energy": 7.867043, "activity_lines": [ 57.952605, 57.94325, 57.949192, 57.967575 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }