{ "ticker": { "uuid": "652718f7-ac92-4bf0-ac9b-954ffd0c3d29", "symbol": "MFE", "name": "Amundi Core MSCI EMU UCITS ETF Dist", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.645, "architecture_energy": 59.564, "architecture_maturity": 57.093, "architecture_confidence": 72.591, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.63, "rotation_up": 52.82, "upward_expansion": 80.48, "deceleration": 67.42, "rotation_down": 27.0, "downward_expansion": 9.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 83.864665, 83.543635, 81.964427, 80.426644 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 85.629997, "trend_reference": 78.812999, "distance_from_trend": 0.086496, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 64.968315, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.318027, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.567891, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.1115, "excess_performance": 0.058189, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.086496, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043186, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.318027, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069128, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.055679, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00857, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.1115, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.892375, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4373, "relative_activity": 0.034812, "balance": 0.892375, "dry_up": 0.125953, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023105, "annualized_volatility": 0.171553, "from_high_reference": -0.004534, "from_low_reference": 0.263175 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 78.812999, "fair_value_reference": 64.968315, "structural_low": 69.650002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.0057, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": 0.004531, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.089354, "worst_return": -0.075386, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.017519, "positive_rate": 0.846154, "directional_follow_through": 0.846154, "median_excess_return": 0.011974, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.098303, "worst_return": -0.046075, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.062717, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.015669, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.161602, "worst_return": -0.168285, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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140881.25, "trend": 78.240666, "fair_value": 64.555786, "relative_strength": 6.868346, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.619606, "energy": 54.398635, "activity_lines": [ 82.998666, 82.788544, 80.957618, 79.635676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 83.389999, "volume": 14480, "typical_volume": 128839.95, "trend": 78.519332, "fair_value": 64.754312, "relative_strength": 5.489609, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.55204, "energy": 48.380034, "activity_lines": [ 83.084666, 82.99309, 81.376665, 79.967891 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 85.629997, "volume": 4373, "typical_volume": 125616.1, "trend": 78.812999, "fair_value": 64.968315, "relative_strength": 5.567891, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.645464, "energy": 59.564079, "activity_lines": [ 83.864665, 83.543635, 81.964427, 80.426644 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }