{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65343f29-b07a-4cdb-bc53-520d0b526843", "symbol": "HD", "name": "The Home Depot, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 61.179, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 14.594, "architecture_energy": 13.776, "architecture_maturity": 30.615, "architecture_confidence": 60.169, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.95, "rotation_up": 36.07, "upward_expansion": 27.26, "deceleration": 40.99, "rotation_down": 28.24, "downward_expansion": 27.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 296.893337, 297.740005, 289.866836, 290.122531 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 304.850006, "trend_reference": 294.785929, "distance_from_trend": 0.03414, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 313.213381, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.026702, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.577249, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.056166, "excess_performance": -0.230413, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03414, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008025, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.026702, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102916, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.195772, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075031, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.056166, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.755725, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.755725, "dry_up": 1.479167, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045522, "annualized_volatility": 0.243661, "from_high_reference": -0.144052, "from_low_reference": 0.224027 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 294.785929, "fair_value_reference": 313.213381, "structural_low": 249.05496, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.025239, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.001004, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.095557, "worst_return": -0.116166, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.036785, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.023581, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.15246, "worst_return": -0.161853, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.031558, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.151825, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.214673, "worst_return": -0.065994, 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281.289583, 282.179237, 288.367103 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 311.350006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9.25, "trend": 295.132735, "fair_value": 312.404503, "relative_strength": -19.870197, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 43.232808, "energy": 47.911253, "activity_lines": [ 299.303341, 287.379736, 284.380055, 289.435405 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 300.200012, "volume": 44, "typical_volume": 9.9, "trend": 295.028044, "fair_value": 312.662255, "relative_strength": -21.198026, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.727135, "energy": 48.806132, "activity_lines": [ 301.986676, 290.995755, 285.600867, 289.762326 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 303.049988, "volume": 36, "typical_volume": 11.7, "trend": 295.296235, "fair_value": 312.888384, "relative_strength": -18.431866, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.441392, "energy": 54.072153, "activity_lines": [ 303.546669, 294.714596, 287.189112, 290.279871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 290.950012, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 11.7, "trend": 295.321539, "fair_value": 312.96924, "relative_strength": -22.197192, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.511221, "energy": 39.006597, "activity_lines": [ 299.746671, 295.645517, 287.686618, 289.99947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 287.5, "volume": 35, "typical_volume": 12.95, "trend": 295.12102, "fair_value": 313.049362, "relative_strength": -22.470565, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.395198, "energy": 9.655462, "activity_lines": [ 294.813336, 295.300078, 287.92637, 289.494854 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 304.850006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12.0, "trend": 294.785929, "fair_value": 313.213381, "relative_strength": -19.577249, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.593541, "energy": 13.77575, "activity_lines": [ 296.893337, 297.740005, 289.866836, 290.122531 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }