{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6536733d-e66a-42f3-895c-7976f7c5a320", "symbol": "601878", "name": "Zheshang Securities Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.621, "architecture_energy": 17.261, "architecture_maturity": 18.797, "architecture_confidence": 61.236, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.85, "rotation_up": 22.85, "upward_expansion": 16.86, "deceleration": 44.65, "rotation_down": 29.84, "downward_expansion": 53.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.448918, 9.431805, 9.44148, 9.575614 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.45, "trend_reference": 9.844433, "distance_from_trend": -0.040067, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.712224, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.11783, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.410038, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.110979, "excess_performance": -0.067775, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040067, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053248, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.11783, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029691, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.0941, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080418, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.110979, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.401122, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 113255592, "relative_activity": 0.970768, "balance": 0.401122, "dry_up": 1.126384, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044677, "annualized_volatility": 0.170875, "from_high_reference": -0.249801, "from_low_reference": 0.054687 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.844433, "fair_value_reference": 10.712224, "structural_low": 8.96, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.009425, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.000914, "regime_survival": 0.52381, "best_return": 0.084973, "worst_return": -0.090909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.003449, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.003015, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.069467, "worst_return": -0.221194, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.005758, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009955, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.044323, "worst_return": -0.065602, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.009327, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.025951, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.212378, "worst_return": -0.154719, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090562, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002048, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.082734, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117415, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036741, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0375, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.019896, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042934, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074038, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.163092, "energy": 18.395172, "activity_lines": [ 9.463518, 9.399305, 9.473285, 9.672081 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.311362, "volume": 155363589, "typical_volume": 117004926.2, "trend": 9.93299, "fair_value": 10.71336, "relative_strength": -8.751911, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.473006, "energy": 19.64276, "activity_lines": [ 9.428785, 9.385047, 9.44633, 9.628542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.55, "volume": 111289564, "typical_volume": 117394568.7, "trend": 9.887398, "fair_value": 10.71299, "relative_strength": -6.380103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.258299, "energy": 18.089776, "activity_lines": [ 9.460175, 9.418699, 9.446953, 9.603833 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.45, "volume": 113255592, "typical_volume": 116665914.45, "trend": 9.844433, "fair_value": 10.712224, "relative_strength": -9.410038, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.620865, "energy": 17.26091, "activity_lines": [ 9.448918, 9.431805, 9.44148, 9.575614 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }