{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6537d3d2-6859-4b40-ae3c-8cb416d81c68", "symbol": "INGN", "name": "Inogen Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.394, "architecture_energy": 22.969, "architecture_maturity": 27.784, "architecture_confidence": 72.345, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.14, "rotation_up": 18.27, "upward_expansion": 16.68, "deceleration": 56.79, "rotation_down": 47.69, "downward_expansion": 39.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.278667, 6.403273, 6.486048, 6.447656 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.05, "trend_reference": 6.350333, "distance_from_trend": -0.047294, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.505609, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.193936, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.668759, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.068905, "excess_performance": -0.118549, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047294, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023076, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.193936, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096083, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.236688, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076956, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.068905, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.693124, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1743757, "relative_activity": 1.219729, "balance": 0.693124, "dry_up": 0.856425, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098296, "annualized_volatility": 0.307359, "from_high_reference": -0.337349, "from_low_reference": 0.132938 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.350333, "fair_value_reference": 7.505609, "structural_low": 5.3401, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.068318, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.049576, "regime_survival": 0.3125, "best_return": 0.37291, "worst_return": -0.461277, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.179423, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.140633, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.125612, "worst_return": -0.527234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.309682, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.339856, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.190049, "worst_return": -0.469473, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.35871, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.351156, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.461664, "worst_return": -0.780942, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.113054, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.116523, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065975, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068427, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.001342, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030968, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067818, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.149635, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.002899, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"direction": 29.674221, "energy": 18.886034, "activity_lines": [ 6.606667, 6.558, 6.571095, 6.482022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.15, "volume": 1171449, "typical_volume": 1406493.0, "trend": 6.389, "fair_value": 7.513686, "relative_strength": -18.696056, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.28411, "energy": 4.916991, "activity_lines": [ 6.452667, 6.491818, 6.536, 6.465204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.45, "volume": 882715, "typical_volume": 1395448.35, "trend": 6.383, "fair_value": 7.506378, "relative_strength": -14.918076, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.328365, "energy": 11.075771, "activity_lines": [ 6.416, 6.484364, 6.531, 6.46914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.05, "volume": 1743757, "typical_volume": 1429626.95, "trend": 6.350333, "fair_value": 7.505609, "relative_strength": -23.668759, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.393922, "energy": 22.968888, "activity_lines": [ 6.278667, 6.403273, 6.486048, 6.447656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }