{ "ticker": { "uuid": "653a0c8a-92e9-465e-ad15-b19f4cd472d9", "symbol": "TSLA34", "name": "Tesla, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.59, "architecture_energy": 80.788, "architecture_maturity": 19.544, "architecture_confidence": 79.111, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.8, "rotation_up": 13.43, "upward_expansion": 23.53, "deceleration": 31.34, "rotation_down": 76.78, "downward_expansion": 92.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 52.926666, 56.927272, 59.895238, 60.895205 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 52.299999, "trend_reference": 62.958667, "distance_from_trend": -0.169296, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.634359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.012891, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.380745, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.221379, "excess_performance": -0.16433, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.169296, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074323, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.012891, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.297764, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.243807, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094077, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.221379, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.275249, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6679238, "relative_activity": 1.49948, "balance": 1.275249, "dry_up": 1.428233, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09344, "annualized_volatility": 0.450652, "from_high_reference": -0.396074, "from_low_reference": 0.105007 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 62.958667, "fair_value_reference": 51.634359, "structural_low": 47.330002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.028514, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.038999, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.533579, "worst_return": -0.357027, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.004387, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.02783, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.443063, "worst_return": -0.245007, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.318053, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.259433, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.692466, "worst_return": -0.31984, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.185516, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.045016, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008924, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.17361, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11398, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": 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"typical_volume": 4282659.0, "trend": 65.634, "fair_value": 51.403718, "relative_strength": -14.143245, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.537781, "energy": 21.36906, "activity_lines": [ 63.030666, 63.651091, 63.182858, 63.655441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.549999, "volume": 7989876, "typical_volume": 4364471.5, "trend": 64.539, "fair_value": 51.468654, "relative_strength": -29.750293, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.322484, "energy": 66.3337, "activity_lines": [ 58.475999, 60.952182, 61.935715, 62.617764 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.25, "volume": 5297128, "typical_volume": 4365283.75, "trend": 63.710667, "fair_value": 51.537115, "relative_strength": -31.341466, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.779424, "energy": 81.260406, "activity_lines": [ 54.79, 58.504909, 60.732857, 61.631377 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.299999, "volume": 6679238, "typical_volume": 4454370.25, "trend": 62.958667, "fair_value": 51.634359, "relative_strength": -24.380745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.58974, "energy": 80.787854, "activity_lines": [ 52.926666, 56.927272, 59.895238, 60.895205 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }