{ "ticker": { "uuid": "653d6f88-286a-4e8b-be20-e46cfe7df570", "symbol": "603999", "name": "DuZhe Publish&Media Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.604, "architecture_energy": 38.936, "architecture_maturity": 89.45, "architecture_confidence": 89.238, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.51, "rotation_up": 27.08, "upward_expansion": 18.25, "deceleration": 46.96, "rotation_down": 39.84, "downward_expansion": 68.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.4, 5.331691, 5.672407, 6.036382 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 5.52, "trend_reference": 6.523008, "distance_from_trend": -0.153765, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.15245, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.102796, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.428424, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.289575, "excess_performance": -0.246371, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.153765, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081094, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.102796, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18394, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.164284, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071024, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.289575, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.911724, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30255500, "relative_activity": 0.826306, "balance": 0.911724, "dry_up": 0.893238, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089901, "annualized_volatility": 0.338042, "from_high_reference": -0.379078, "from_low_reference": 0.122889 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.523008, "fair_value_reference": 6.15245, "structural_low": 4.915889, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.007797, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.011433, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.161491, "worst_return": -0.163233, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.011858, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.038095, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.290984, "worst_return": -0.071456, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.090535, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.072119, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.167984, "worst_return": -0.037767, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.130778, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013473, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029806, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007174, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.044097, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-20", 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"relative_strength": -19.730285, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.839053, "energy": 61.415423, "activity_lines": [ 5.195471, 5.306245, 5.788694, 6.174641 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.53, "volume": 30268780, "typical_volume": 37067811.1, "trend": 6.573341, "fair_value": 6.157597, "relative_strength": -14.455179, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.437392, "energy": 48.126199, "activity_lines": [ 5.316899, 5.306968, 5.726836, 6.10434 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.52, "volume": 30255500, "typical_volume": 36615390.85, "trend": 6.523008, "fair_value": 6.15245, "relative_strength": -16.428424, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.604404, "energy": 38.93594, "activity_lines": [ 5.4, 5.331691, 5.672407, 6.036382 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }