{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65419eb9-9591-49a4-88aa-41c8ad5e29da", "symbol": "FDL", "name": "First Trust Morningstar Dividend Leaders ETF (CAD-Hedged)", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.959, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.158, "architecture_energy": 70.964, "architecture_maturity": 4.495, "architecture_confidence": 67.838, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.85, "rotation_up": 74.55, "upward_expansion": 87.66, "deceleration": 45.15, "rotation_down": 8.61, "downward_expansion": 14.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.112001, 40.683969, 40.443178, 40.381932 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 41.380001, "trend_reference": 40.128704, "distance_from_trend": 0.031182, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.113013, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.24966, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.017357, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.030757, "excess_performance": -0.089664, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031182, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043632, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.24966, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015669, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030174, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006115, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030757, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.307692, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1200, "relative_activity": 2.5, "balance": 3.307692, "dry_up": 1.302083, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018325, "annualized_volatility": 0.118364, "from_high_reference": -0.017569, "from_low_reference": 0.220681 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.128704, "fair_value_reference": 33.113013, "structural_low": 39.16618, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.002826, "positive_rate": 0.606061, "directional_follow_through": 0.606061, "median_excess_return": -0.00606, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.092233, "worst_return": -0.089241, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.004661, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.027713, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.10787, "worst_return": -0.059252, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.029821, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.024921, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.168648, "worst_return": -0.042759, "sufficient": true }, { 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39.632069, "fair_value": 32.843396, "relative_strength": -0.939617, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.933618, "energy": 28.902741, "activity_lines": [ 40.289425, 40.199348, 40.192383, 40.122358 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.68, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 450.0, "trend": 39.789993, "fair_value": 32.928497, "relative_strength": -2.178495, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.869822, "energy": 33.29908, "activity_lines": [ 40.517507, 40.29268, 40.23468, 40.189967 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.360001, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 455.0, "trend": 39.974544, "fair_value": 33.020749, "relative_strength": -0.017942, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Re-acceleration watch", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.078775, "energy": 58.347773, "activity_lines": [ 40.871334, 40.492215, 40.340987, 40.291258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.380001, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 480.0, "trend": 40.128704, "fair_value": 33.113013, "relative_strength": -3.017357, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.157692, "energy": 70.963858, "activity_lines": [ 41.112001, 40.683969, 40.443178, 40.381932 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }