{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65490f8e-bd27-4254-91a1-c03f0f71ab65", "symbol": "ALUMA", "name": "Aluma Infrastructure Fund (2020) Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 48.074, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 12.603, "architecture_energy": 15.74, "architecture_maturity": 26.329, "architecture_confidence": 64.271, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.48, "rotation_up": 55.92, "upward_expansion": 34.87, "deceleration": 26.5, "rotation_down": 14.78, "downward_expansion": 19.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.9354, 0.915291, 0.917857, 0.919157 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.966, "trend_reference": 0.926867, "distance_from_trend": 0.042221, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.564603, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.710938, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.903193, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.014706, "excess_performance": -0.014194, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042221, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025711, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.710938, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.39472, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.009032, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014347, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014706, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.904057, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5878489, "relative_activity": 1.286798, "balance": 0.904057, "dry_up": 0.920651, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073897, "annualized_volatility": 0.390829, "from_high_reference": -0.145133, "from_low_reference": 0.38 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.926867, "fair_value_reference": 0.564603, "structural_low": 0.811, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.024729, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.026223, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.121528, "worst_return": -0.125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.030105, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.14059, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.150171, "worst_return": -0.216561, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.048611, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.095933, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.065015, "worst_return": -0.079618, "sufficient": false 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.174825, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.060976, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.156425, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.295337, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.751515, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", 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"fair_value": 0.555981, "relative_strength": -8.15882, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.083673, "energy": 14.712805, "activity_lines": [ 0.911533, 0.898745, 0.911652, 0.916972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.92, "volume": 6109202, "typical_volume": 4348728.4, "trend": 0.926967, "fair_value": 0.560141, "relative_strength": -5.735924, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.625779, "energy": 14.212958, "activity_lines": [ 0.9186, 0.902927, 0.912548, 0.916639 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.966, "volume": 5878489, "typical_volume": 4568306.55, "trend": 0.926867, "fair_value": 0.564603, "relative_strength": -0.903193, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 12.603465, "energy": 15.740271, "activity_lines": [ 0.9354, 0.915291, 0.917857, 0.919157 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }