{ "ticker": { "uuid": "654c879d-947b-43ad-b45e-cb3b73556243", "symbol": "BASE", "name": "Evolve Global Materials & Mining Enhanced Yield Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.285, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 5.992, "architecture_energy": 10.767, "architecture_maturity": 26.915, "architecture_confidence": 62.992, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.58, "rotation_up": 30.32, "upward_expansion": 21.44, "deceleration": 68.11, "rotation_down": 35.24, "downward_expansion": 35.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.684647, 28.57935, 29.116082, 29.170829 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 30.18, "trend_reference": 29.111683, "distance_from_trend": 0.036697, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.310645, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.352718, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.274772, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.036707, "excess_performance": -0.083714, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036697, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061036, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.352718, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069602, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.022748, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113891, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.036707, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.195929, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21900, "relative_activity": 1.374333, "balance": 1.195929, "dry_up": 1.193913, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040937, "annualized_volatility": 0.265066, "from_high_reference": -0.044938, "from_low_reference": 0.497585 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.111683, "fair_value_reference": 22.310645, "structural_low": 26.342625, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.006408, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.008344, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.043555, "worst_return": -0.011443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.054715, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.002025, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.076448, "worst_return": -0.068368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.101205, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.07887, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.289459, "worst_return": -0.10033, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"trend": 28.852646, "fair_value": 22.192065, "relative_strength": -1.596993, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.350281, "energy": 58.876644, "activity_lines": [ 27.790391, 28.497366, 29.113004, 29.132796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.23, "volume": 11900, "typical_volume": 15740.0, "trend": 28.967841, "fair_value": 22.244302, "relative_strength": -0.961874, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.970247, "energy": 51.491992, "activity_lines": [ 27.917179, 28.344553, 29.022175, 29.092625 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.18, "volume": 21900, "typical_volume": 15935.0, "trend": 29.111683, "fair_value": 22.310645, "relative_strength": 2.274772, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 5.992106, "energy": 10.766875, "activity_lines": [ 28.684647, 28.57935, 29.116082, 29.170829 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }