{ "ticker": { "uuid": "654dabaf-73a0-45fb-aecb-2ab4eeb51aa2", "symbol": "SPYV", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR PORTFOLIO S&P 500 VALUE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.526, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.834, "architecture_energy": 79.423, "architecture_maturity": 32.963, "architecture_confidence": 77.817, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.73, "rotation_up": 74.56, "upward_expansion": 94.53, "deceleration": 42.63, "rotation_down": 18.03, "downward_expansion": 16.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 62.355333, 61.893677, 61.126268, 60.318011 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 63.14, "trend_reference": 59.451997, "distance_from_trend": 0.062033, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.946404, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.239342, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.365215, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.066007, "excess_performance": -0.059618, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062033, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029791, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.239342, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023602, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023652, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011655, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.066007, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.119374, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14691250, "relative_activity": 1.137436, "balance": 2.119374, "dry_up": 0.86439, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016487, "annualized_volatility": 0.090154, "from_high_reference": -0.002764, "from_low_reference": 0.206095 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.451997, "fair_value_reference": 50.946404, "structural_low": 55.439454, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.015342, "positive_rate": 0.707317, "directional_follow_through": 0.707317, "median_excess_return": 0.001496, "regime_survival": 0.780488, "best_return": 0.058502, "worst_return": -0.062079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.031113, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.009085, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.083972, "worst_return": -0.042429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.075774, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.004635, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.113533, "worst_return": -0.041195, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.638969, "energy": 77.064013, "activity_lines": [ 61.764, 61.387639, 60.568968, 59.878311 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 62.06, "volume": 10510720, "typical_volume": 13694823.35, "trend": 59.280829, "fair_value": 50.807109, "relative_strength": -0.706194, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.52884, "energy": 73.012776, "activity_lines": [ 61.928, 61.553826, 60.809426, 60.069032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.14, "volume": 14691250, "typical_volume": 12916114.85, "trend": 59.451997, "fair_value": 50.946404, "relative_strength": -2.365215, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.834463, "energy": 79.422731, "activity_lines": [ 62.355333, 61.893677, 61.126268, 60.318011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }