{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6552dd67-8b89-4d31-864e-d11783bef2c5", "symbol": "AYA", "name": "Aya Gold & Silver Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.693, "architecture_energy": 56.37, "architecture_maturity": 46.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.462, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.14, "rotation_up": 63.16, "upward_expansion": 78.84, "deceleration": 56.4, "rotation_down": 15.6, "downward_expansion": 7.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 30.946001, 29.53891, 27.921, 26.649247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.880001, "trend_reference": 25.372333, "distance_from_trend": 0.492965, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.228269, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.487479, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 58.391831, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.667254, "excess_performance": 0.546832, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.492965, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.155546, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.487479, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.545714, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.583918, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.233478, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.667254, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.623363, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7290000, "relative_activity": 1.466321, "balance": 1.623363, "dry_up": 1.076031, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10649, "annualized_volatility": 0.894668, "from_high_reference": -0.005774, "from_low_reference": 2.308297 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.372333, "fair_value_reference": 15.228269, "structural_low": 16.709999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": 0.021891, "positive_rate": 0.575758, "directional_follow_through": 0.575758, "median_excess_return": 0.015773, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.320781, "worst_return": -0.259551, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.110018, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.100076, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.374836, "worst_return": -0.358771, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.17576, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.10847, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.70297, "worst_return": -0.243089, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.016467, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.08221, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.002285, "worst_return": -0.391878, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.197289, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03384, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.393293, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.257475, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028073, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.132271, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.057348, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055834, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069102, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", 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28.68, "volume": 4120000, "typical_volume": 5704825.0, "trend": 24.073333, "fair_value": 14.67359, "relative_strength": 29.237757, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.691474, "energy": 60.961158, "activity_lines": [ 28.493333, 27.572, 26.066333, 25.244989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.290001, "volume": 3784800, "typical_volume": 5515425.0, "trend": 24.286333, "fair_value": 14.785385, "relative_strength": 17.65381, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.908062, "energy": 42.126988, "activity_lines": [ 27.899334, 27.437273, 26.192905, 25.388 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.790001, "volume": 5139900, "typical_volume": 5353000.0, "trend": 24.552, "fair_value": 14.911218, "relative_strength": 22.873348, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.145256, "energy": 32.641888, "activity_lines": [ 27.794667, 27.578, 26.477762, 25.614043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.540001, "volume": 5183800, "typical_volume": 5283410.0, "trend": 24.822333, "fair_value": 15.035064, "relative_strength": 21.039759, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.903189, "energy": 23.237234, "activity_lines": [ 27.627334, 27.649273, 26.720572, 25.806817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.880001, "volume": 7290000, "typical_volume": 4971625.0, "trend": 25.372333, "fair_value": 15.228269, "relative_strength": 58.391831, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.693379, "energy": 56.369632, "activity_lines": [ 30.946001, 29.53891, 27.921, 26.649247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }