{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65537863-8bfa-4ac9-9f05-bc72ae0b3528", "symbol": "2515", "name": "BES Engineering Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.604, "architecture_energy": 56.938, "architecture_maturity": 9.887, "architecture_confidence": 89.428, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.98, "rotation_up": 13.74, "upward_expansion": 14.66, "deceleration": 35.48, "rotation_down": 64.39, "downward_expansion": 85.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.996667, 12.291177, 12.396634, 12.657173 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.05, "trend_reference": 13.007126, "distance_from_trend": -0.073585, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.456306, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.051822, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -31.256947, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.089661, "excess_performance": -0.531033, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073585, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025963, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.051822, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007726, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.312569, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02178, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.089661, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.927893, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33369658, "relative_activity": 0.817708, "balance": 0.927893, "dry_up": 0.913665, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069775, "annualized_volatility": 0.409278, "from_high_reference": -0.321517, "from_low_reference": 0.277903 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.007126, "fair_value_reference": 11.456306, "structural_low": 11.3, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.003846, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": 0.019022, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.151515, "worst_return": -0.100806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.030565, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.023316, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.146465, "worst_return": -0.112903, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.030441, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.023009, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.126263, "worst_return": -0.120968, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.594333, "energy": 16.197584, "activity_lines": [ 12.828532, 12.703331, 12.673733, 12.936221 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.05, "volume": 51514079, "typical_volume": 47036493.8, "trend": 13.070737, "fair_value": 11.396525, "relative_strength": -29.62039, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.77737, "energy": 19.811661, "activity_lines": [ 12.568544, 12.609371, 12.587848, 12.869044 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.85, "volume": 34640690, "typical_volume": 44260749.55, "trend": 13.037206, "fair_value": 11.415904, "relative_strength": -29.355903, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.354206, "energy": 44.440008, "activity_lines": [ 12.286095, 12.472058, 12.501263, 12.790286 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.95, "volume": 29617629, "typical_volume": 41275558.9, "trend": 13.026054, "fair_value": 11.436485, "relative_strength": -29.966119, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.833048, "energy": 55.812847, "activity_lines": [ 12.069122, 12.36862, 12.440329, 12.720144 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 12.05, "volume": 33369658, "typical_volume": 40808748.0, "trend": 13.007126, "fair_value": 11.456306, "relative_strength": -31.256947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.60397, "energy": 56.938036, "activity_lines": [ 11.996667, 12.291177, 12.396634, 12.657173 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }