{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65565b93-c4b1-4a2c-a9e0-6ab838ced3f0", "symbol": "301119", "name": "Hangzhou Zhengqiang Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.499, "architecture_energy": 76.458, "architecture_maturity": 44.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.285, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.09, "rotation_up": 11.8, "upward_expansion": 17.83, "deceleration": 38.03, "rotation_down": 71.45, "downward_expansion": 91.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.126, 21.761387, 24.152721, 26.378183 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.120001, "trend_reference": 29.749023, "distance_from_trend": -0.290061, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.225817, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.049754, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.91747, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.37788, "excess_performance": -0.38528, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.290061, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108686, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.049754, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.474941, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.319175, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.125533, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.37788, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.424457, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7594430, "relative_activity": 0.713511, "balance": 0.424457, "dry_up": 0.889777, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.170353, "annualized_volatility": 0.742533, "from_high_reference": -0.520713, "from_low_reference": 0.265428 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.749023, "fair_value_reference": 22.225817, "structural_low": 16.690001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.02127, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.049282, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.194559, "worst_return": -0.268825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.040297, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.051287, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.442977, "worst_return": -0.166595, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.467452, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.306569, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.135084, "worst_return": -0.200179, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 18.799999, "volume": 11436642, "typical_volume": 10704129.7, "trend": 30.826442, "fair_value": 22.198786, "relative_strength": -38.166343, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.045649, "energy": 60.735508, "activity_lines": [ 21.494, 22.961832, 25.452013, 27.709805 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.360001, "volume": 7824807, "typical_volume": 10612856.35, "trend": 30.293711, "fair_value": 22.20377, "relative_strength": -34.790843, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.112702, "energy": 80.05584, "activity_lines": [ 20.403334, 22.112873, 24.684856, 26.970035 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.120001, "volume": 7594430, "typical_volume": 10643744.2, "trend": 29.749023, "fair_value": 22.225817, "relative_strength": -31.91747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.499104, "energy": 76.457773, "activity_lines": [ 20.126, 21.761387, 24.152721, 26.378183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }