{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6556fac2-8568-4e51-96f9-7152a4c39919", "symbol": "VASCONEQ", "name": "Vascon Engineers Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.922, "architecture_energy": 41.338, "architecture_maturity": 67.476, "architecture_confidence": 95.008, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.2, "rotation_up": 18.87, "upward_expansion": 7.09, "deceleration": 43.81, "rotation_down": 52.34, "downward_expansion": 80.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.955334, 33.410364, 34.263048, 34.776559 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 33.639999, "trend_reference": 36.111666, "distance_from_trend": -0.068445, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 55.79782, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.397109, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.128906, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.214753, "excess_performance": -0.171043, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.068445, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130182, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.397109, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098924, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.231289, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071908, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.214753, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.673476, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1066234, "relative_activity": 0.422088, "balance": 0.673476, "dry_up": 0.305671, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081153, "annualized_volatility": 0.454644, "from_high_reference": -0.549001, "from_low_reference": 0.25757 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.111666, "fair_value_reference": 55.79782, "structural_low": 26.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.022657, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.004994, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.358448, "worst_return": -0.231981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.020432, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.040395, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.592199, "worst_return": -0.201675, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.221393, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.13648, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.917701, "worst_return": -0.291524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"close": 32.330002, "volume": 540106, "typical_volume": 3362754.4, "trend": 36.992667, "fair_value": 55.990878, "relative_strength": -24.842958, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.380097, "energy": 40.915605, "activity_lines": [ 33.309335, 33.768183, 34.627238, 35.286581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.950001, "volume": 523696, "typical_volume": 2818541.75, "trend": 36.502667, "fair_value": 55.88654, "relative_strength": -26.940439, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.289696, "energy": 49.977894, "activity_lines": [ 32.758001, 33.415092, 34.360905, 34.961247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.639999, "volume": 1066234, "typical_volume": 2526094.05, "trend": 36.111666, "fair_value": 55.79782, "relative_strength": -23.128906, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.921759, "energy": 41.338435, "activity_lines": [ 32.955334, 33.410364, 34.263048, 34.776559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }