{ "ticker": { "uuid": "655b96c4-067f-4b62-9394-3d11adac0a32", "symbol": "D8DU", "name": "First Ship Lease Trust", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.806, "architecture_energy": 40.326, "architecture_maturity": 48.413, "architecture_confidence": 95.738, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.71, "rotation_up": 22.25, "upward_expansion": 4.75, "deceleration": 57.35, "rotation_down": 54.43, "downward_expansion": 80.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.039067, 0.0396, 0.0406, 0.041811 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.038, "trend_reference": 0.044567, "distance_from_trend": -0.147345, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.041786, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.090605, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.165277, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.283019, "excess_performance": -0.437854, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.147345, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012555, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.090605, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114294, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.251653, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.189228, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.283019, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.004932, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 602600, "relative_activity": 0.963312, "balance": 0.004932, "dry_up": 0.994045, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082996, "annualized_volatility": 0.38764, "from_high_reference": -0.472222, "from_low_reference": 0.055556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.044567, "fair_value_reference": 0.041786, "structural_low": 0.036, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.006847, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.019227, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.382973, "worst_return": -0.253716, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.096094, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.067024, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.35, "worst_return": -0.285729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.047619, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.153639, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.328482, "worst_return": -0.301368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026316, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.153846, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106383, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 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-15.923087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.129873, "energy": 40.066153, "activity_lines": [ 0.0404, 0.040673, 0.041538, 0.043092 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.039, "volume": 1325400, "typical_volume": 698545.0, "trend": 0.045333, "fair_value": 0.041963, "relative_strength": -22.635778, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.310087, "energy": 39.086583, "activity_lines": [ 0.04, 0.040327, 0.041229, 0.042677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.039, "volume": 536100, "typical_volume": 652435.0, "trend": 0.0451, "fair_value": 0.041868, "relative_strength": -22.703087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.101468, "energy": 38.370088, "activity_lines": [ 0.039667, 0.040036, 0.040952, 0.042269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.038, "volume": 602600, "typical_volume": 625550.0, "trend": 0.044567, "fair_value": 0.041786, "relative_strength": -25.165277, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.806223, "energy": 40.325675, "activity_lines": [ 0.039067, 0.0396, 0.0406, 0.041811 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }