{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6561152a-174f-4719-b85b-9a463230262b", "symbol": "NOLA-B", "name": "Nolato AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.707, "architecture_energy": 31.976, "architecture_maturity": 13.854, "architecture_confidence": 89.281, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.87, "rotation_up": 16.19, "upward_expansion": 5.59, "deceleration": 43.42, "rotation_down": 53.38, "downward_expansion": 74.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.229999, 48.567273, 48.829759, 48.890461 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 48.599998, "trend_reference": 49.752879, "distance_from_trend": -0.023172, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 51.397151, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.054422, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.207634, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.031761, "excess_performance": -0.093256, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023172, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05986, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.054422, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011202, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192076, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007505, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.031761, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.841022, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 885387, "relative_activity": 0.863646, "balance": 0.841022, "dry_up": 0.814805, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050649, "annualized_volatility": 0.234695, "from_high_reference": -0.221965, "from_low_reference": 0.101621 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.752879, "fair_value_reference": 51.397151, "structural_low": 44.116818, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.012889, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.002578, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.134492, "worst_return": -0.154062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.030303, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.041721, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.131992, "worst_return": -0.147766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.032035, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.039069, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.093567, "worst_return": -0.132182, "sufficient": true 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1139883.95, "trend": 51.132929, "fair_value": 51.183935, "relative_strength": -17.564797, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.956834, "energy": 9.386693, "activity_lines": [ 49.563333, 49.435455, 49.120212, 49.589733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.25, "volume": 1170074, "typical_volume": 1136359.95, "trend": 50.750241, "fair_value": 51.226095, "relative_strength": -20.80797, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.227946, "energy": 30.004813, "activity_lines": [ 48.5, 48.87, 48.875027, 49.274706 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 47.900002, "volume": 820904, "typical_volume": 1111822.8, "trend": 50.40162, "fair_value": 51.2746, "relative_strength": -18.712737, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.840966, "energy": 25.834848, "activity_lines": [ 48.166667, 48.652728, 48.806227, 49.090819 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.799999, "volume": 464901, "typical_volume": 1048250.1, "trend": 50.103932, "fair_value": 51.334165, "relative_strength": -17.821145, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.0255, "energy": 30.692659, "activity_lines": [ 48.243333, 48.611818, 48.829926, 48.987489 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.599998, "volume": 885387, "typical_volume": 1025173.0, "trend": 49.752879, "fair_value": 51.397151, "relative_strength": -19.207634, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.707109, "energy": 31.976373, "activity_lines": [ 48.229999, 48.567273, 48.829759, 48.890461 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }