{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6561baf3-458c-4058-b4b9-580aaedbb39d", "symbol": "BUI", "name": "Bangkok Union Insurance Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 55.797, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.885, "architecture_energy": 12.402, "architecture_maturity": 70.583, "architecture_confidence": 77.852, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 68.68, "rotation_up": 21.98, "upward_expansion": 11.11, "deceleration": 42.17, "rotation_down": 26.05, "downward_expansion": 54.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.0, 10.967273, 10.992381, 11.005148 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 11.0, "trend_reference": 11.019943, "distance_from_trend": -0.00181, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.033734, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.003057, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.58847, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.034731, "excess_performance": -0.157594, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.00181, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004848, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.003057, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005268, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.145885, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012088, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.034731, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.183628, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15400, "relative_activity": 0.448457, "balance": 1.183628, "dry_up": 1.16555, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030769, "annualized_volatility": 0.109805, "from_high_reference": -0.087904, "from_low_reference": 0.119391 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.019943, "fair_value_reference": 11.033734, "structural_low": 10.4, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.012221, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.018462, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.067227, "worst_return": -0.128835, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.016129, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.083059, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.124138, "worst_return": -0.116564, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.002894, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.132116, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.331035, "worst_return": -0.173077, "sufficient": false 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[ 10.88, 10.969091, 10.997864, 11.009853 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.0, "volume": 18900, "typical_volume": 104381.0, "trend": 11.01538, "fair_value": 10.98528, "relative_strength": -16.933693, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.489444, "energy": 35.434023, "activity_lines": [ 10.906667, 10.969091, 10.993456, 11.009846 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.0, "volume": 57100, "typical_volume": 102968.0, "trend": 11.018754, "fair_value": 10.997393, "relative_strength": -17.382832, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.935839, "energy": 20.522355, "activity_lines": [ 10.946667, 10.969091, 10.990693, 11.008854 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.0, "volume": 64800, "typical_volume": 80182.0, "trend": 11.01915, "fair_value": 11.00985, "relative_strength": -17.072088, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.911235, "energy": 12.286632, "activity_lines": [ 10.98, 10.967273, 10.99, 11.007644 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.0, "volume": 22800, "typical_volume": 41135.0, "trend": 11.019547, "fair_value": 11.022651, "relative_strength": -15.624218, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.298869, "energy": 13.144519, "activity_lines": [ 10.993333, 10.965455, 10.990952, 11.006409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.0, "volume": 15400, "typical_volume": 34340.0, "trend": 11.019943, "fair_value": 11.033734, "relative_strength": -14.58847, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.885341, "energy": 12.402165, "activity_lines": [ 11.0, 10.967273, 10.992381, 11.005148 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }