{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6569147c-894f-474a-b477-cd46843c12b5", "symbol": "EWSA", "name": "iShares MSCI World Small Cap CTB Enhanced ESG UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.819, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.317, "architecture_energy": 44.327, "architecture_maturity": 53.166, "architecture_confidence": 83.226, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.78, "rotation_up": 41.61, "upward_expansion": 65.19, "deceleration": 87.85, "rotation_down": 27.13, "downward_expansion": 17.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.0088, 7.009309, 6.936971, 6.81962 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 7.171, "trend_reference": 6.688707, "distance_from_trend": 0.072106, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.409373, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.325662, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.521717, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.098785, "excess_performance": -0.017878, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072106, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05078, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.325662, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011024, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.005217, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065966, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.098785, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.272389, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1252873, "relative_activity": 2.200134, "balance": 1.272389, "dry_up": 1.349248, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020542, "annualized_volatility": 0.156195, "from_high_reference": -0.002504, "from_low_reference": 0.284665 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.688707, "fair_value_reference": 5.409373, "structural_low": 5.9726, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.015858, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.004813, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.116136, "worst_return": -0.061705, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013034, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007481, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.154946, "worst_return": -0.089298, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.079644, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.071026, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.183625, "worst_return": 0.069414, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04462, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056227, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013154, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03949, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.062886, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047009, "active": false }, { 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6.726514 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.924, "volume": 213086, "typical_volume": 462608.6, "trend": 6.610673, "fair_value": 5.363416, "relative_strength": -1.068627, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.924548, "energy": 55.552551, "activity_lines": [ 7.0042, 6.988364, 6.857961, 6.748449 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.944, "volume": 623360, "typical_volume": 478025.6, "trend": 6.635783, "fair_value": 5.377923, "relative_strength": -0.653645, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.882021, "energy": 44.555367, "activity_lines": [ 6.9786, 6.987909, 6.881739, 6.769954 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.896, "volume": 984014, "typical_volume": 520003.3, "trend": 6.661393, "fair_value": 5.392513, "relative_strength": -2.194524, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.227694, "energy": 32.161956, "activity_lines": [ 6.942467, 6.974345, 6.898027, 6.786742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.171, "volume": 1252873, "typical_volume": 569453.15, "trend": 6.688707, "fair_value": 5.409373, "relative_strength": 0.521717, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.316501, "energy": 44.326542, "activity_lines": [ 7.0088, 7.009309, 6.936971, 6.81962 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }