{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6571c209-b796-4bc5-aa73-cd7fd1e1b9ec", "symbol": "UQA", "name": "UNIQA Insurance Group AG", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.144, "architecture_energy": 50.501, "architecture_maturity": 48.234, "architecture_confidence": 70.963, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.19, "rotation_up": 52.15, "upward_expansion": 81.24, "deceleration": 66.01, "rotation_down": 25.65, "downward_expansion": 7.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.78, 17.674084, 17.169378, 16.780452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.0, "trend_reference": 16.360268, "distance_from_trend": 0.100226, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.328477, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.742755, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.423282, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.126408, "excess_performance": -0.047839, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.100226, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062672, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.742755, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029043, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.024233, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024247, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.126408, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.152851, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 510612, "relative_activity": 0.952609, "balance": 2.152851, "dry_up": 0.99924, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.038318, "annualized_volatility": 0.235442, "from_high_reference": -0.022801, "from_low_reference": 0.495017 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.360268, "fair_value_reference": 10.328477, "structural_low": 13.3, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.012315, "positive_rate": 0.564103, "directional_follow_through": 0.564103, "median_excess_return": 0.002766, "regime_survival": 0.74359, "best_return": 0.175, "worst_return": -0.11828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.011008, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.012818, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.344743, "worst_return": -0.090575, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.097414, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.022781, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.63099, "worst_return": -0.137501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 84.098401, "activity_lines": [ 17.71659, 17.2896, 16.67277, 16.394499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.16, "volume": 575939, "typical_volume": 650694.9, "trend": 16.122935, "fair_value": 10.112165, "relative_strength": -2.701835, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.983937, "energy": 72.948405, "activity_lines": [ 17.594666, 17.326845, 16.758541, 16.465106 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.5, "volume": 544807, "typical_volume": 625662.3, "trend": 16.190935, "fair_value": 10.181796, "relative_strength": -2.226008, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.452142, "energy": 58.992412, "activity_lines": [ 17.572, 17.408109, 16.874693, 16.553949 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.98, "volume": 511069, "typical_volume": 570374.7, "trend": 16.278268, "fair_value": 10.255015, "relative_strength": 0.416345, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.723896, "energy": 52.50441, "activity_lines": [ 17.686667, 17.555807, 17.028179, 16.669372 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.0, "volume": 510612, "typical_volume": 536014.1, "trend": 16.360268, "fair_value": 10.328477, "relative_strength": -2.423282, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.144213, "energy": 50.501303, "activity_lines": [ 17.78, 17.674084, 17.169378, 16.780452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }