{ "ticker": { "uuid": "657ea37c-cb05-4201-9479-c74266bacc37", "symbol": "ATYR", "name": "aTyr Pharma, Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.337, "architecture_energy": 37.25, "architecture_maturity": 53.794, "architecture_confidence": 95.126, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.9, "rotation_up": 24.94, "upward_expansion": 5.04, "deceleration": 52.46, "rotation_down": 43.96, "downward_expansion": 76.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.498913, 0.506936, 0.551003, 0.61888 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.5114, "trend_reference": 0.69937, "distance_from_trend": -0.26877, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.127113, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.75958, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -64.363324, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.431146, "excess_performance": -0.618599, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.26877, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109261, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.75958, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177257, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.643633, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032189, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.431146, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.568202, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3160044, "relative_activity": 0.314612, "balance": 0.568202, "dry_up": 0.529529, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.253888, "annualized_volatility": 1.079727, "from_high_reference": -0.921323, "from_low_reference": 0.294684 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.69937, "fair_value_reference": 2.127113, "structural_low": 0.395, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.0375, "positive_rate": 0.407407, "directional_follow_through": 0.592593, "median_excess_return": -0.041836, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.301333, "worst_return": -0.317308, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.084249, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.193671, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.578512, "worst_return": -0.419162, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.232601, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.240431, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.282759, "worst_return": -0.311377, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.080645, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.494444, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057692, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048598, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.068441, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.05902, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.03568, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.375876, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057327, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.91, "volume": 820999, "typical_volume": 2614825.2, "trend": 2.123167, "fair_value": 4.075705, "relative_strength": -30.121079, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": 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10101745, "typical_volume": 10295045.35, "trend": 0.724177, "fair_value": 2.156213, "relative_strength": -70.493467, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.183595, "energy": 28.713257, "activity_lines": [ 0.533973, 0.515029, 0.597369, 0.662431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.4733, "volume": 4774169, "typical_volume": 10202358.75, "trend": 0.715193, "fair_value": 2.146362, "relative_strength": -69.917275, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.376942, "energy": 31.041988, "activity_lines": [ 0.51676, 0.508873, 0.578619, 0.646246 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.4857, "volume": 3238986, "typical_volume": 10103754.0, "trend": 0.70608, "fair_value": 2.136655, "relative_strength": -67.152055, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.828204, "energy": 36.766633, "activity_lines": [ 0.50216, 0.505529, 0.56272, 0.63144 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.5114, "volume": 3160044, "typical_volume": 10044270.9, "trend": 0.69937, "fair_value": 2.127113, "relative_strength": -64.363324, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.337413, "energy": 37.250032, "activity_lines": [ 0.498913, 0.506936, 0.551003, 0.61888 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }