{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6587011f-f5b4-47f5-9237-8a551c18e152", "symbol": "002831", "name": "ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.443, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.999, "architecture_energy": 63.849, "architecture_maturity": 17.292, "architecture_confidence": 80.796, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.35, "rotation_up": 10.8, "upward_expansion": 13.56, "deceleration": 38.51, "rotation_down": 70.97, "downward_expansion": 89.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.202667, 28.569637, 31.391053, 32.191075 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 28.530001, "trend_reference": 32.27923, "distance_from_trend": -0.11615, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.648534, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.112344, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.852946, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.012803, "excess_performance": -0.020202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.11615, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003596, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.112344, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.474248, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078529, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.23744, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012803, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.283143, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50293436, "relative_activity": 0.922833, "balance": 1.283143, "dry_up": 1.048714, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.166166, "annualized_volatility": 0.699008, "from_high_reference": -0.382394, "from_low_reference": 0.235118 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.27923, "fair_value_reference": 25.648534, "structural_low": 24.459999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.044195, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.024129, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.005602, "worst_return": -0.076949, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.012318, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.020799, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.115153, "worst_return": -0.179436, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.118366, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.013825, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.344201, "worst_return": -0.18865, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0927, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038282, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0948, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09011, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103041, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.135118, 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60402244.35, "trend": 32.371896, "fair_value": 25.595883, "relative_strength": -9.365222, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.259026, "energy": 55.334806, "activity_lines": [ 28.070667, 29.822425, 32.573737, 32.825298 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.290001, "volume": 54396665, "typical_volume": 58432347.25, "trend": 32.278563, "fair_value": 25.612956, "relative_strength": -10.609932, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.305806, "energy": 60.360364, "activity_lines": [ 26.941334, 28.85565, 31.856038, 32.432918 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.530001, "volume": 50293436, "typical_volume": 54498948.05, "trend": 32.27923, "fair_value": 25.648534, "relative_strength": -7.852946, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.999311, "energy": 63.848505, "activity_lines": [ 27.202667, 28.569637, 31.391053, 32.191075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }