{ "ticker": { "uuid": "6588f5b4-6383-45dc-8498-31f1a57fba93", "symbol": "000012", "name": "CSG Holding Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.166, "architecture_energy": 57.651, "architecture_maturity": 43.677, "architecture_confidence": 83.681, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.32, "rotation_up": 12.13, "upward_expansion": 13.63, "deceleration": 36.28, "rotation_down": 70.73, "downward_expansion": 86.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.861141, 4.089926, 4.162868, 4.258062 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.85, "trend_reference": 4.379821, "distance_from_trend": -0.120969, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.906658, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.215352, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.857242, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.172043, "excess_performance": -0.179443, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.120969, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034289, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.215352, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016262, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.178572, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122495, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.172043, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.669837, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 125779511, "relative_activity": 0.717173, "balance": 0.669837, "dry_up": 0.882335, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.137709, "annualized_volatility": 0.555827, "from_high_reference": -0.26945, "from_low_reference": 0.063536 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.379821, "fair_value_reference": 4.906658, "structural_low": 3.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.017502, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.003723, "regime_survival": 0.852941, "best_return": 0.184655, "worst_return": -0.239892, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.007501, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.026525, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.121482, "worst_return": -0.210682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.028985, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.085298, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.119397, "worst_return": -0.305638, "sufficient": true 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14.24801, "activity_lines": [ 4.530213, 4.403964, 4.359084, 4.414058 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.78968, "volume": 196877316, "typical_volume": 185678361.7, "trend": 4.442155, "fair_value": 4.938854, "relative_strength": -17.95401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.392322, "energy": 21.40136, "activity_lines": [ 4.307109, 4.31327, 4.298268, 4.370285 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.74, "volume": 162775155, "typical_volume": 181682639.65, "trend": 4.418155, "fair_value": 4.927854, "relative_strength": -18.670888, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.930029, "energy": 39.619136, "activity_lines": [ 4.081467, 4.217913, 4.238627, 4.324985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.93, "volume": 133552186, "typical_volume": 176899939.85, "trend": 4.399155, "fair_value": 4.917663, "relative_strength": -12.482167, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.031065, "energy": 43.542488, "activity_lines": [ 3.956491, 4.156919, 4.202319, 4.293491 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.85, "volume": 125779511, "typical_volume": 175382393.9, "trend": 4.379821, "fair_value": 4.906658, "relative_strength": -17.857242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.166377, "energy": 57.651406, "activity_lines": [ 3.861141, 4.089926, 4.162868, 4.258062 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }