{ "ticker": { "uuid": "658f319e-585d-4d7e-b8bb-297ec54c79b3", "symbol": "PAEEM", "name": "Amundi PEA Emergent (MSCI Emerging) ESG Transition UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.484, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.124, "architecture_energy": 24.182, "architecture_maturity": 65.518, "architecture_confidence": 88.992, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.8, "rotation_up": 18.44, "upward_expansion": 52.51, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 35.18, "downward_expansion": 18.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.727999, 35.295472, 35.133171, 34.281802 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 35.055, "trend_reference": 33.180967, "distance_from_trend": 0.056479, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.255713, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.388003, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.087783, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.130806, "excess_performance": 0.077495, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056479, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076426, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.388003, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077148, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.060878, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.167494, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.130806, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.932802, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 478697, "relative_activity": 1.678608, "balance": 0.932802, "dry_up": 1.388581, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044885, "annualized_volatility": 0.229874, "from_high_reference": -0.073844, "from_low_reference": 0.364008 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.180967, "fair_value_reference": 25.255713, "structural_low": 28.92, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.008784, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.00383, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.125578, "worst_return": -0.052214, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.049075, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.045131, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.240821, "worst_return": -0.003208, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.047685, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.058531, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.347667, "worst_return": -0.00158, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.775711, "energy": 59.404077, "activity_lines": [ 36.518066, 36.194855, 34.848524, 33.816848 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.055, "volume": 405426, "typical_volume": 294077.2, "trend": 32.6356, "fair_value": 24.993674, "relative_strength": 8.947185, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.621313, "energy": 36.641458, "activity_lines": [ 35.674667, 35.868455, 34.895591, 33.921546 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.634998, "volume": 294116, "typical_volume": 274272.6, "trend": 32.842967, "fair_value": 25.077206, "relative_strength": 9.870666, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.524912, "energy": 22.855593, "activity_lines": [ 35.158333, 35.668472, 34.989752, 34.05054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.384998, "volume": 405715, "typical_volume": 277213.15, "trend": 33.012467, "fair_value": 25.162591, "relative_strength": 6.941484, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.010548, "energy": 24.126301, "activity_lines": [ 34.760999, 35.41649, 35.039133, 34.150026 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.055, "volume": 478697, "typical_volume": 285175.0, "trend": 33.180967, "fair_value": 25.255713, "relative_strength": 6.087783, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.124265, "energy": 24.181943, "activity_lines": [ 34.727999, 35.295472, 35.133171, 34.281802 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }