{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65912a21-4b0a-469e-8286-f2b1d9537652", "symbol": "688231", "name": "Jiangsu Longda Superalloy Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.628, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -16.962, "architecture_energy": 29.38, "architecture_maturity": 48.354, "architecture_confidence": 52.197, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.0, "rotation_up": 16.87, "upward_expansion": 18.02, "deceleration": 69.02, "rotation_down": 61.71, "downward_expansion": 40.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.395333, 30.462631, 31.736306, 30.530014 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 29.690001, "trend_reference": 28.599403, "distance_from_trend": 0.038134, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.530522, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.796072, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 26.108972, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.280518, "excess_performance": 0.323722, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038134, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.173116, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.796072, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.194165, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.26109, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.259198, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.280518, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.553416, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30456733, "relative_activity": 1.106882, "balance": 0.553416, "dry_up": 1.22725, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.216424, "annualized_volatility": 0.881195, "from_high_reference": -0.339929, "from_low_reference": 1.076887 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.599403, "fair_value_reference": 16.530522, "structural_low": 21.80399, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.18392, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.181676, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.230275, "worst_return": 0.031275, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.429252, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.410298, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.468614, "worst_return": 0.389889, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.490425, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.476844, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.490425, "worst_return": 0.490425, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.357043, "energy": 45.675888, "activity_lines": [ 37.081497, 36.323006, 33.306203, 30.929958 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.129999, "volume": 37987143, "typical_volume": 29697088.4, "trend": 27.986986, "fair_value": 16.426539, "relative_strength": 23.866866, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.65723, "energy": 18.079063, "activity_lines": [ 34.03969, 34.767358, 32.962867, 30.884653 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.65, "volume": 39813327, "typical_volume": 28831350.4, "trend": 28.174814, "fair_value": 16.454099, "relative_strength": 14.58039, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.803076, "energy": 10.305643, "activity_lines": [ 30.864, 33.010918, 32.486633, 30.73388 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.6, "volume": 26817846, "typical_volume": 27867453.15, "trend": 28.275116, "fair_value": 16.471124, "relative_strength": 4.182607, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.834447, "energy": 32.710056, "activity_lines": [ 27.762, 31.021209, 31.815966, 30.438731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.690001, "volume": 30456733, "typical_volume": 27515789.45, "trend": 28.599403, "fair_value": 16.530522, "relative_strength": 26.108972, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.962436, "energy": 29.379681, "activity_lines": [ 27.395333, 30.462631, 31.736306, 30.530014 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }