{ "ticker": { "uuid": "65946b0a-8711-42df-b836-b31a82110aa3", "symbol": "PXX", "name": "PolarX Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.738, "architecture_energy": 19.989, "architecture_maturity": 64.831, "architecture_confidence": 92.665, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.84, "rotation_up": 29.07, "upward_expansion": 18.15, "deceleration": 38.51, "rotation_down": 34.97, "downward_expansion": 63.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0156, 0.015291, 0.016067, 0.016637 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.017, "trend_reference": 0.017633, "distance_from_trend": -0.035917, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.012661, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.342717, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.477564, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0, "excess_performance": -0.063706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035917, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086356, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.342717, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031661, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134776, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138675, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.935755, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4504203, "relative_activity": 0.542967, "balance": 0.935755, "dry_up": 0.574178, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.144796, "annualized_volatility": 0.708373, "from_high_reference": -0.413793, "from_low_reference": 0.307692 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.017633, "fair_value_reference": 0.012661, "structural_low": 0.013, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.1, "positive_rate": 0.259259, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.085261, "regime_survival": 0.888889, "best_return": 1.5, "worst_return": -0.294118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.143791, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.151566, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.9, "worst_return": -0.375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.1, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.034387, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.3, "worst_return": -0.597958, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"amber", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.222222, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.2, "active": false }, { 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.483711, "energy": 65.644424, "activity_lines": [ 0.014867, 0.0158, 0.0167, 0.017357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.014, "volume": 2255145, "typical_volume": 9971241.55, "trend": 0.018167, "fair_value": 0.012558, "relative_strength": -24.456495, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.609487, "energy": 60.811479, "activity_lines": [ 0.014467, 0.015364, 0.016386, 0.017077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.013, "volume": 3168384, "typical_volume": 9296761.7, "trend": 0.0179, "fair_value": 0.012571, "relative_strength": -29.867401, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.726659, "energy": 65.591301, "activity_lines": [ 0.013933, 0.0148, 0.016, 0.016744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.017, "volume": 9124722, "typical_volume": 8812242.05, "trend": 0.017767, "fair_value": 0.012616, "relative_strength": -10.790198, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.91173, "energy": 35.168742, "activity_lines": [ 0.014867, 0.015036, 0.016029, 0.016686 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.017, "volume": 4504203, "typical_volume": 8295541.3, "trend": 0.017633, "fair_value": 0.012661, "relative_strength": -13.477564, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.738022, "energy": 19.988572, "activity_lines": [ 0.0156, 0.015291, 0.016067, 0.016637 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }