{ "ticker": { "uuid": "659c24dd-846e-40f8-ace1-2e09e712fe8f", "symbol": "AGCO", "name": "AGCO Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.56, "architecture_energy": 57.494, "architecture_maturity": 11.923, "architecture_confidence": 89.808, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.27, "rotation_up": 14.63, "upward_expansion": 14.22, "deceleration": 35.66, "rotation_down": 61.39, "downward_expansion": 82.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 108.76, 111.724909, 113.319809, 115.065375 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 102.83, "trend_reference": 117.391586, "distance_from_trend": -0.124043, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 106.029858, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.030179, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.04098, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.220675, "excess_performance": -0.3463, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.124043, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020928, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.030179, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127492, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.19041, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.127731, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.220675, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.895426, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4554330, "relative_activity": 1.266145, "balance": 0.895426, "dry_up": 1.241943, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082717, "annualized_volatility": 0.35444, "from_high_reference": -0.281436, "from_low_reference": 0.041409 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 117.391586, "fair_value_reference": 106.029858, "structural_low": 101.175, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.022295, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.039872, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.228276, "worst_return": -0.117566, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.081222, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": 0.021802, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.317629, "worst_return": -0.148984, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.096227, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.034376, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.543595, "worst_return": -0.050989, "sufficient": true 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"2026-06-26", "close": 117.35, "volume": 3894007, "typical_volume": 3566894.05, "trend": 116.32621, "fair_value": 106.523812, "relative_strength": -3.790315, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -5.870154, "energy": 5.712105, "activity_lines": [ 114.930667, 114.646135, 115.903519, 117.020788 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 116.49, "volume": 2505080, "typical_volume": 3418993.9, "trend": 116.717019, "fair_value": 106.476725, "relative_strength": -6.313647, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.187209, "energy": 4.658396, "activity_lines": [ 115.614667, 114.928675, 115.662091, 117.031355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 114.32, "volume": 3708078, "typical_volume": 3428965.0, "trend": 116.906106, "fair_value": 106.391141, "relative_strength": -9.01961, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.219001, "energy": 14.033407, "activity_lines": [ 115.294667, 114.804547, 115.326515, 116.876709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 115.33, "volume": 3057224, "typical_volume": 3424096.25, "trend": 117.240665, "fair_value": 106.302864, "relative_strength": -6.608461, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -29.593137, "energy": 14.067283, "activity_lines": [ 115.450667, 114.934545, 115.196969, 116.775025 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 121.21, "volume": 4251183, "typical_volume": 3474258.7, "trend": 117.782504, "fair_value": 106.27547, "relative_strength": -1.124505, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.147991, "energy": 6.506484, "activity_lines": [ 117.377333, 116.164545, 115.726515, 117.031111 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 102.16, "volume": 6006371, "typical_volume": 3609366.05, "trend": 117.676404, "fair_value": 106.14563, "relative_strength": -17.124545, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.718785, "energy": 38.807997, "activity_lines": [ 112.450667, 113.786727, 114.452931, 116.023207 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 102.83, "volume": 4554330, "typical_volume": 3597005.25, "trend": 117.391586, "fair_value": 106.029858, "relative_strength": -19.04098, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.559892, "energy": 57.493654, "activity_lines": [ 108.76, 111.724909, 113.319809, 115.065375 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }